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Probability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.

 Puzzle ID: #28292 Fun: (2.36) Difficulty: (2.69) Category: Probability Submitted By: Question_Mark

...................4a - 5a - 6a - HOME
.....2a - 3a - 4b - 5b - 6b - HOME
1 - 2b - 3b - 4c - 5c - 6c - HOME
.....2c - 3c - 4d - 5d - 6d - HOME
..................4e - 5e - 6e - HOME

His main intention is to start from point 1, go to point 6c and go home. He may only move one space on the map at a time. He may not go backwards, or up and down. So from point 1, he might go to 2a, then to 3b, then to 4d and so on. When he reaches points 6a, 6b, 6c, 6d or 6e, he can take a long route, or a short route home.

What is the probability of Shadow reaching point 6c and taking the short route home?

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