Shooting StarProbability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.Henry and Gretchen plan on sitting outside to look for shooting stars. They know from experience that if they watch for an hour, they will have a 90% chance of seeing a shooting star. It is a chilly night, though, so Gretchen says, "Let's only stay out for 10 minutes."
Henry says, "I was really hoping to see a shooting star tonight. If we are only out for 10 minutes, we will only have a 15% chance." Gretchen replies, "Not true. We have a better chance than that." Is Gretchen right? If so, what is the probability that they see a shooting star? What Next?
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