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## Another Day at Band Camp

Probability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.

 Puzzle ID: #6231 Fun: (2.26) Difficulty: (1.64) Category: Probability Submitted By: Mogmatt16 Corrected By: Winner4600

Mogmatt was in a drill down at Band Camp. This is where everyone gets into a block and tries to execute commands given by the drum major. If you miss a command, you must fall out. The last one left wins. Mogmatt is an exceptional marcher and will only miss one of every 30 commands. Unfortunately for him, so will all the other 149 band members. What is his probability of winning?

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 Drunky Aug 11, 2002 isnt this like math or probablility? Mogmatt16 Aug 28, 2002 100% origional! yogi Dec 06, 2002 Actually, your odds of winning is 50%. You either will or you won't. The probabilty is calculated based on the total number of participants. Phily Feb 16, 2003 Yogi, if you think that's true, then would you place 2-1 odds on him winning? I would place a big bet with you if you did that... odds are 150-1. tsimkin Nov 24, 2004 I think Phily means fair odds are 149:1... Sane Feb 11, 2005 Ouch. I said 1 in 149. Whoops. It's sort of a trick question, because you get rushed into an intuitive answer. mr_brainiac Jan 08, 2006 Why not 1 in 149 ? tsimkin Jan 09, 2006 There are 149 OTHER members, for a total of 150. If each is equally likely, it is 1/150 (or 149:1 odds), not 1/149. Stack1607 Jan 11, 2010 Ouch!! didn't count Mogmatt with the other 149, so I got 1/149.