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Another Day at Band Camp

Probability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.


Puzzle ID:#6231
Fun:*** (2.26)
Difficulty:** (1.64)
Submitted By:Mogmatt16Ava****!!
Corrected By:Winner4600




Mogmatt was in a drill down at Band Camp. This is where everyone gets into a block and tries to execute commands given by the drum major. If you miss a command, you must fall out. The last one left wins. Mogmatt is an exceptional marcher and will only miss one of every 30 commands. Unfortunately for him, so will all the other 149 band members. What is his probability of winning?

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Aug 11, 2002

isnt this like math or probablility?
Aug 28, 2002

100% origional!
Dec 06, 2002

Actually, your odds of winning is 50%. You either will or you won't. The probabilty is calculated based on the total number of participants.
Feb 16, 2003

Yogi, if you think that's true, then would you place 2-1 odds on him winning? I would place a big bet with you if you did that... odds are 150-1.
Nov 24, 2004

I think Phily means fair odds are 149:1...
Feb 11, 2005

Ouch. I said 1 in 149. Whoops.

It's sort of a trick question, because you get rushed into an intuitive answer.
Jan 08, 2006

Why not 1 in 149 ?
Jan 09, 2006

There are 149 OTHER members, for a total of 150. If each is equally likely, it is 1/150 (or 149:1 odds), not 1/149.
Jan 11, 2010

Ouch!! didn't count Mogmatt with the other 149, so I got 1/149.

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