The Werewolf Game
Game #2998: No Frills Werewolf Game 4
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This game finished in 7 rounds.
RFM
bradon was a werewolf.
1 werewolf and 4 humans remain
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 03:44:28---
bradon was a werewolf.
1 werewolf and 4 humans remain
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 03:44:28---
Well I guess I should have just sealed the deal last round, no posts in the five hours after my vote.
I still wouldn't rule out Putter, aside from his comment about Bobbi I would say he's the most likely suspect, his defending of her isn't really his usual style but I wouldn't say it's enough to clear him to any degree. My biggest concern about the Bobbi vote was the lack of real opposition to it, so Putter's comments do stand out as the only dissension from the consensus.
Saying that I'll give another read through of the previous rounds with Bobbi's ID in mind.
EDIT: Quick analysis, interesting that LH was eaten rather than one of the Bobbi voters. We still don't know dfam's wolf play but he was in early on the Bobbi vote too, would be a pretty brutal opening to his wolf career if he'd bussed both partners. Could be the case but I'm essentially ruling him out as we only have two choices left. Given that I already mentioned feeling slightly itchy about dfam's lack of eating following the Chris shooting I'm not any further concerned about the fact he's been left alone again.
Cab I was also already leaning human and her early vote last round increases that. I'd probably effectively rule her out too (depending on anything I see when I have a proper look back).
So Spid or Putter are my likely targets, though both have strands of reasoning suggesting they wouldn't be partnered with Bobbi in their favour.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 03:14:11---
I still wouldn't rule out Putter, aside from his comment about Bobbi I would say he's the most likely suspect, his defending of her isn't really his usual style but I wouldn't say it's enough to clear him to any degree. My biggest concern about the Bobbi vote was the lack of real opposition to it, so Putter's comments do stand out as the only dissension from the consensus.
Saying that I'll give another read through of the previous rounds with Bobbi's ID in mind.
EDIT: Quick analysis, interesting that LH was eaten rather than one of the Bobbi voters. We still don't know dfam's wolf play but he was in early on the Bobbi vote too, would be a pretty brutal opening to his wolf career if he'd bussed both partners. Could be the case but I'm essentially ruling him out as we only have two choices left. Given that I already mentioned feeling slightly itchy about dfam's lack of eating following the Chris shooting I'm not any further concerned about the fact he's been left alone again.
Cab I was also already leaning human and her early vote last round increases that. I'd probably effectively rule her out too (depending on anything I see when I have a proper look back).
So Spid or Putter are my likely targets, though both have strands of reasoning suggesting they wouldn't be partnered with Bobbi in their favour.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 03:14:11---
ID posted
"For me, the saxophone is a way of expression" - Kenneth Thomson
"For me, the saxophone is a way of expression" - Kenneth Thomson
I was wrong about bradon, but my reasoning for clearing her made some sense...I just underestimated PC's ball size a bit. My reasoning for clearing her was not that I didn't think PC would SPV her twice, but that I didn't think he would SPV a partner without keeping a cautious eye on the game in case he needed to switch his vote off. Maybe he did log in and keep check without posting, but I didn't really trust dfam's word on that since he was my prime suspect. Anyway...
I think an experienced wolf would've and could have easily used me as a human shield to protect their wolf partner. Spid is pretty much a sure clear for me (besides all the other things like definitively going after bradon and such) on that basis. Cab can easily be ruled out based on votes.
I'm leaning towards putting my vote on Smithy.
Wait dfam not being eaten doesn't make any sense... why eat an inactive non-voter (something that only serves to benefit a lone wolf going into the final round) over someone who has voted to kill BOTH wolves? I think Smithy is experienced as a wolf enough to know this, and taking on both me and spid would be a pretty stupid move if he was a wolf with 2 humans to kill....changing to dfam.
(Frankenstein post)
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 04:29:12---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
I think an experienced wolf would've and could have easily used me as a human shield to protect their wolf partner. Spid is pretty much a sure clear for me (besides all the other things like definitively going after bradon and such) on that basis. Cab can easily be ruled out based on votes.
I'm leaning towards putting my vote on Smithy.
Wait dfam not being eaten doesn't make any sense... why eat an inactive non-voter (something that only serves to benefit a lone wolf going into the final round) over someone who has voted to kill BOTH wolves? I think Smithy is experienced as a wolf enough to know this, and taking on both me and spid would be a pretty stupid move if he was a wolf with 2 humans to kill....changing to dfam.
(Frankenstein post)
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 04:29:12---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Its dfam or Putter in my book.
Cab is essentially cleared, one of the reasons I confirmed my vote on Bradon is that I think she knew her death would 'clear' Cab and so she spent her last moments trying to get her shot in front. I am distancing myself from clearing Putter via my earlier Bradon/HP methods, as Smithy said, clearing someone based on that minor a comment is a bit much.
I'm still mesmerized by the Brady eating. Of all the eating choices, he was the ONLY person who wasnt part of our 'group', he had done nothing to clear himself (outside of my genius analysis ), and had just cast a decisive vote on a human in a closely voted round. That to me is either Harry being his usual competitive self, or dfam feeling a bit of 'peer pressure' and not wanting to eat one of the regular group as there is some pressure not to do that (but that's early and maybe he hadnt realized by round 4 all bets are off). But again, IF HARRY IS A WOLF, why would they EVER eat Brady....did I miss something maybe...otherwise that move makes no sense, Brady was an easy fall guy if Harry were to go down next.
Dfam has been involved in two wolf shootings, it would seem indeed a bold play on his part, or perhaps the opposite, I think sometimes the boldest plays in WWG are to stand in the pocket and try to help your teamate. A wolf who can save their teamate whilst still maintaining their innocence is in my book, the most skillful kind of wolf. I recall one of Ching's first games as a wolf, at the first hint of danger to her partners, she was throwing them under the bus. So while I'm not saying dfam likely did this, their is an alternative view of dfam's actions as 'gutless' moreso than courageous
For the record, I also noted that Chris came back on to potentially change his vote
there also is a few instances of 'fence sitting' from Bradon in regards to Harry....Harry, you may have to convince me not to vote you this round
on the other hand, I'm not a wolf, and Harry if you are a human, an, and I let them shoot you here, I and not dfam will likely follow you to the grave next round....and that simply cant happen. Whereas if you are a wolf, and I shoot dfam......you may very well still get yours next
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 08:17:28---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Cab is essentially cleared, one of the reasons I confirmed my vote on Bradon is that I think she knew her death would 'clear' Cab and so she spent her last moments trying to get her shot in front. I am distancing myself from clearing Putter via my earlier Bradon/HP methods, as Smithy said, clearing someone based on that minor a comment is a bit much.
I'm still mesmerized by the Brady eating. Of all the eating choices, he was the ONLY person who wasnt part of our 'group', he had done nothing to clear himself (outside of my genius analysis ), and had just cast a decisive vote on a human in a closely voted round. That to me is either Harry being his usual competitive self, or dfam feeling a bit of 'peer pressure' and not wanting to eat one of the regular group as there is some pressure not to do that (but that's early and maybe he hadnt realized by round 4 all bets are off). But again, IF HARRY IS A WOLF, why would they EVER eat Brady....did I miss something maybe...otherwise that move makes no sense, Brady was an easy fall guy if Harry were to go down next.
Dfam has been involved in two wolf shootings, it would seem indeed a bold play on his part, or perhaps the opposite, I think sometimes the boldest plays in WWG are to stand in the pocket and try to help your teamate. A wolf who can save their teamate whilst still maintaining their innocence is in my book, the most skillful kind of wolf. I recall one of Ching's first games as a wolf, at the first hint of danger to her partners, she was throwing them under the bus. So while I'm not saying dfam likely did this, their is an alternative view of dfam's actions as 'gutless' moreso than courageous
For the record, I also noted that Chris came back on to potentially change his vote
there also is a few instances of 'fence sitting' from Bradon in regards to Harry....Harry, you may have to convince me not to vote you this round
on the other hand, I'm not a wolf, and Harry if you are a human, an, and I let them shoot you here, I and not dfam will likely follow you to the grave next round....and that simply cant happen. Whereas if you are a wolf, and I shoot dfam......you may very well still get yours next
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 08:17:28---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
This is an interesting point actually. I was looking from the perspective of a bussing being a calculated but cold action (as it is on the rare occasions I do it ) but it could just as easily stem from panic and an a jumpy first time wolf - I think dfam could be the type to worry about how he's doing and thus be overly prone to bussing. However whenever we've discussed general tactics before he started playing I mentioned a couple times that bussing people is nowhere near as useful as people seem to think, I don't know how much stock he would put in my views but he seemed to agree. That would make the Chris shooting harder to justify given there was no real reason to shoot him other than him being quiet.
And what was your genius clear of mbrady anyway?
Dfam has been involved in two wolf shootings, it would seem indeed a bold play on his part, or perhaps the opposite, I think sometimes the boldest plays in WWG are to stand in the pocket and try to help your teamate. A wolf who can save their teamate whilst still maintaining their innocence is in my book, the most skillful kind of wolf. I recall one of Ching's first games as a wolf, at the first hint of danger to her partners, she was throwing them under the bus. So while I'm not saying dfam likely did this, their is an alternative view of dfam's actions as 'gutless' moreso than courageous
This is an interesting point actually. I was looking from the perspective of a bussing being a calculated but cold action (as it is on the rare occasions I do it ) but it could just as easily stem from panic and an a jumpy first time wolf - I think dfam could be the type to worry about how he's doing and thus be overly prone to bussing. However whenever we've discussed general tactics before he started playing I mentioned a couple times that bussing people is nowhere near as useful as people seem to think, I don't know how much stock he would put in my views but he seemed to agree. That would make the Chris shooting harder to justify given there was no real reason to shoot him other than him being quiet.
And what was your genius clear of mbrady anyway?
Well actually I had Brady cleared with the exception of him being Harry's partner, it involved a 3-tier wolf skill level system and involved his actions at the end of the round. It was actually a pretty basic guideline I use, but the presentation was gonna sell it
gonna be a long lazy day for me, so I'll be around to nail this chump
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
gonna be a long lazy day for me, so I'll be around to nail this chump
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
As far as a grand defense goes, it should almost go without saying, though I can see why folks would be a bit wary. I'm surprised that cab is still alive, too. The only reason I can think of for my not having been eaten is that I've been under suspicion for a little while now, and still being alive would certainly not do me any favors, as evidenced by what you've all said so far.
As far as a shot goes, I'm aiming for Harry. He's the only one I can see here as bradon's partner from what she's said about him in previous rounds. My thoughts are pretty much the same as they were last round, save for one thing. Unless it's must-lynch, I don't set much stock in the very first vote on a wolf, since it could either gain momentum or it couldn't. Risky, yes, and I'm not saying it will have me gunning for cab for sure, but it came to mind.
Addendum: Alright, I've given it more thought (and more coherent thought after being more awake), and I'm still convinced that Harry is the best shot this round. He and bradon both been hesitant to vote each other, and I can't ignore her comments about him in Rounds 3 and 4.
Spid: I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I'm pretty convinced you're human. I could see you being smart enough to pull this off as a wolf, but that would be like my very first game wherein I voted Smithy because "He's trustworthy enough to be untrustworthy".
Smithy: You've been out of both wolf majorities so far, but the rounds' start and end times haven't synced well with your schedule, so I can't really suspect you for that alone. I'll have another look, but I don't see bussing both of your partners after all of the times you've said that it's a bad idea to bus even one.
cab: I've definitely got my eye on you, and I'm not convinced that you're cleared, but I'm going with Harry this round for sure.
As for myself, I've mentioned this previously, but bussing Chris when I did wouldn't make any sense. Being that it was Round Two, and that the majority was small, I had every chance to save him with more than enough time to do it. In fact, bussing him that early would've been downright foolhardy.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 12:40:19---
As far as a shot goes, I'm aiming for Harry. He's the only one I can see here as bradon's partner from what she's said about him in previous rounds. My thoughts are pretty much the same as they were last round, save for one thing. Unless it's must-lynch, I don't set much stock in the very first vote on a wolf, since it could either gain momentum or it couldn't. Risky, yes, and I'm not saying it will have me gunning for cab for sure, but it came to mind.
Addendum: Alright, I've given it more thought (and more coherent thought after being more awake), and I'm still convinced that Harry is the best shot this round. He and bradon both been hesitant to vote each other, and I can't ignore her comments about him in Rounds 3 and 4.
Spid: I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I'm pretty convinced you're human. I could see you being smart enough to pull this off as a wolf, but that would be like my very first game wherein I voted Smithy because "He's trustworthy enough to be untrustworthy".
Smithy: You've been out of both wolf majorities so far, but the rounds' start and end times haven't synced well with your schedule, so I can't really suspect you for that alone. I'll have another look, but I don't see bussing both of your partners after all of the times you've said that it's a bad idea to bus even one.
cab: I've definitely got my eye on you, and I'm not convinced that you're cleared, but I'm going with Harry this round for sure.
As for myself, I've mentioned this previously, but bussing Chris when I did wouldn't make any sense. Being that it was Round Two, and that the majority was small, I had every chance to save him with more than enough time to do it. In fact, bussing him that early would've been downright foolhardy.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 12:40:19---
You actually didn't bus PC. You were simply the first to SPV for him, and when others jumped on your vote due to Chris' inactivity, it would be easy to pin you as a wolf if you switched off at that point (since there was no reason to switch off). Surely you would know this
And yes not only do the eating patterns not make any sense if I'm a wolf, the don't make any sense if dfam is a human.
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
And yes not only do the eating patterns not make any sense if I'm a wolf, the don't make any sense if dfam is a human.
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Yes, that is something worth pointing out, dfam hardly 'bussed' Chris, it was as Harry described it, an SPV unswitched
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Aright let's compile the evidence for and against both dfam and I:
Harry is a Wolf evidence
- He's acting kinda weird maybe
- He explicitly said a wolf was clear and was hesitant to vote them on that basis
Harry is a Human evidence
- Many of his stated suspects have been eaten - often for no apparent reason - while they were still good shots for being a wolf
- He certainly would not explicitly defend a wolf partner like that (radical change in wolf tactics + the risk doesn't make any sense)
- He, as someone experienced as a wolf, would not eat LH over people who could be definitively cleared using some line of logic
Dfam is a wolf evidence
- The eatings are hallmarks of an inexperienced wolf
- dfam's 'busses' looked more like someone accepting the inevitable and being scared to do otherwise, rather than someone actually bussing someone. His posts are always hesitent
- There's nothing to clear him of being bradon's partner (pair analysis-wise)
Dfam is a human evidence
- "There's no way he would do that guys come on"
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 13:39:20---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Harry is a Wolf evidence
- He's acting kinda weird maybe
- He explicitly said a wolf was clear and was hesitant to vote them on that basis
Harry is a Human evidence
- Many of his stated suspects have been eaten - often for no apparent reason - while they were still good shots for being a wolf
- He certainly would not explicitly defend a wolf partner like that (radical change in wolf tactics + the risk doesn't make any sense)
- He, as someone experienced as a wolf, would not eat LH over people who could be definitively cleared using some line of logic
Dfam is a wolf evidence
- The eatings are hallmarks of an inexperienced wolf
- dfam's 'busses' looked more like someone accepting the inevitable and being scared to do otherwise, rather than someone actually bussing someone. His posts are always hesitent
- There's nothing to clear him of being bradon's partner (pair analysis-wise)
Dfam is a human evidence
- "There's no way he would do that guys come on"
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 13:39:20---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
I disagree, and would argue that it would make the bus simply a passive one as opposed to an aggressive one. After all, I was present throughout all of that round, except for the time I was asleep, and I was there to see the second and third votes pile on. My conscious decision to keep my vote on him when I had both the time to switch and another candidate (brady for also being relatively inactive) to shoot was as condemning as it would've been had I been that last vote. Even so, with the majority as small as it was, Chris turned out to be a luck shot (without any actual reasons for him being a wolf at that point), and my switching wouldn't have looked all that strange. Nobody who voted had any wolf hunches on him.
As it stands, the argument against me is flimsy at best, and seems more speculative than actual evidence. My being alive has landed me on the radar, but beyond that, what reason is there? You've stated that the eating pattern is beneath your level, when in fact it's done precisely as a you being a wolf would want: cast suspicion on me for being "strange". If anything, you sound more annoyed than defensive.
Also, my shot against bradon was the one that placed her right into a majority. If it can be said I didn't get Chris shot, then it was the exact opposite for bradon. I don't know that my posts are any more hesitant than usual; my first posts of the round are always "holding posts" while I formulate a theory. I don't often come right out of the gate knowing who I'm after.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 13:53:44---
As it stands, the argument against me is flimsy at best, and seems more speculative than actual evidence. My being alive has landed me on the radar, but beyond that, what reason is there? You've stated that the eating pattern is beneath your level, when in fact it's done precisely as a you being a wolf would want: cast suspicion on me for being "strange". If anything, you sound more annoyed than defensive.
Also, my shot against bradon was the one that placed her right into a majority. If it can be said I didn't get Chris shot, then it was the exact opposite for bradon. I don't know that my posts are any more hesitant than usual; my first posts of the round are always "holding posts" while I formulate a theory. I don't often come right out of the gate knowing who I'm after.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 13:53:44---
Hah. Gotcha bradon!
I more no-goodski to go. I'm steady in my suspicion of HP. Last night, I had found a pair of postings from bradon and HP that seemed glaringly wolfie, especially in light of bradon's ID. But now I can't remember which ones they were.
"I discovered I scream the same whether I'm about to be devoured by a Great White or if a piece of seaweed touches my foot." Axl Rose
I more no-goodski to go. I'm steady in my suspicion of HP. Last night, I had found a pair of postings from bradon and HP that seemed glaringly wolfie, especially in light of bradon's ID. But now I can't remember which ones they were.
"I discovered I scream the same whether I'm about to be devoured by a Great White or if a piece of seaweed touches my foot." Axl Rose
Correction to my earlier post.
This line regarding Smithy
is incorrect. I'm not quite sure what I was thinking since I had JUST said that Smithy had voted for neither wolf, but that must've been the point at which I stopped composing that post to re-read previous rounds.
This line regarding Smithy
I'll have another look, but I don't see bussing both of your partners after all of the times you've said that it's a bad idea to bus even one.
is incorrect. I'm not quite sure what I was thinking since I had JUST said that Smithy had voted for neither wolf, but that must've been the point at which I stopped composing that post to re-read previous rounds.
Do you not see the overwhelming contradiction in your argument, dfam?
On one hand you're saying I'm a wwg genius who expertly framed you since the beginning with strange eatings, keeping you alive, eating suspects who could have easily extended the game for me, YET I couldn't figure out that it was a bad idea to explicitly protect/clear a wolf partner. The "massive conspiracy" argument is one people always try to use against me, but I just find it more ridiculous every time.
And no, that wouldn't be a passive bus. PC was an inactive at that point in the round. You couldn't switch your vote off of him at that point because there was no reason not to - why would anyone let an inactive live? If anything, PC was a huge liability at that point, and you would be glad as an inexperienced wolf to collect some 'human points' at that early point in the game. That is pretty clear.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 14:42:19---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
On one hand you're saying I'm a wwg genius who expertly framed you since the beginning with strange eatings, keeping you alive, eating suspects who could have easily extended the game for me, YET I couldn't figure out that it was a bad idea to explicitly protect/clear a wolf partner. The "massive conspiracy" argument is one people always try to use against me, but I just find it more ridiculous every time.
And no, that wouldn't be a passive bus. PC was an inactive at that point in the round. You couldn't switch your vote off of him at that point because there was no reason not to - why would anyone let an inactive live? If anything, PC was a huge liability at that point, and you would be glad as an inexperienced wolf to collect some 'human points' at that early point in the game. That is pretty clear.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 14:42:19---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
You seem to be viewing my posts as an insult to your playing ability; that's not what I'm trying to do at all. I didn't say that you "couldn't figure out" what consequences a particular strategy would have, and there's no need to make this personal. What I'm offering are guesses at best based on what has already happened. The exchange between you and bradon looks wolfy, that's a fact. (Perhaps not so much an exchange as comments about one other, but the point remains)
As far as eatings go, I also was not implying that this entire game has been a ploy to set me up. The first few eatings made perfect sense regardless of who's a wolf. Only the fourth and fifth eatings come off as strange, and two rounds' worth of setup is hardly what anyone would call a massive conspiracy. In fact, it would make sense to me to set up specific people at that point with the number of players dwindling, and the "inexperienced wolf" card is pretty easy to play. I can't exactly defend with "As a wolf in the past..."
I feel that further arguing the PC vs brady shot in Round Two will likely be met with "AHA! So you're explaining exactly why you would bus Chris, which is what you did.", so that seems a waste. Suffice to say that my experience with Chris isn't usually with him being an inactive wolf -or- human, and my only experience with brady has culminated in his posting once, maybe twice in a round unless he's directly under suspicion.
I would consider Chris' mostly-missed round as a one-off, which I feel I could've spoken up about had I felt the need to save him. Maybe I'm wrong, but I still don't think moving from a three-vote majority in a round with 13 players would've stood out, even if they turn out to be a wolf. I would call that luck.
That's about all I have now.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 15:35:41---
As far as eatings go, I also was not implying that this entire game has been a ploy to set me up. The first few eatings made perfect sense regardless of who's a wolf. Only the fourth and fifth eatings come off as strange, and two rounds' worth of setup is hardly what anyone would call a massive conspiracy. In fact, it would make sense to me to set up specific people at that point with the number of players dwindling, and the "inexperienced wolf" card is pretty easy to play. I can't exactly defend with "As a wolf in the past..."
I feel that further arguing the PC vs brady shot in Round Two will likely be met with "AHA! So you're explaining exactly why you would bus Chris, which is what you did.", so that seems a waste. Suffice to say that my experience with Chris isn't usually with him being an inactive wolf -or- human, and my only experience with brady has culminated in his posting once, maybe twice in a round unless he's directly under suspicion.
I would consider Chris' mostly-missed round as a one-off, which I feel I could've spoken up about had I felt the need to save him. Maybe I'm wrong, but I still don't think moving from a three-vote majority in a round with 13 players would've stood out, even if they turn out to be a wolf. I would call that luck.
That's about all I have now.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 15:35:41---
alright this is interesting....
Harry's 'agitation' seems totally human, but there isnt really that much evidence against dfam, excepting the 'peer pressure eatings' that I mentioned earlier.....this will be a tough call, i am rueing (sp?) this over as we speak
Im hard pressed to honestly think Harry would eat LHF (pending my review of her comments, if she says she suspected him i may revisit this)
This is Longhorns only post last round:
Im honestly struggling to come up with Harry's rationale for eating LHF, especially in light of her comment about dfam
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 17:14:29---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Harry's 'agitation' seems totally human, but there isnt really that much evidence against dfam, excepting the 'peer pressure eatings' that I mentioned earlier.....this will be a tough call, i am rueing (sp?) this over as we speak
Im hard pressed to honestly think Harry would eat LHF (pending my review of her comments, if she says she suspected him i may revisit this)
This is Longhorns only post last round:
I am looking twice at bradon. Not sure about Harry. He is not being his usual self yet.
Dan...leaning more human than in round 3-4. Dfam....there is a good possibility there.
Holding vote for now.
Movie night with Mk
Dan...leaning more human than in round 3-4. Dfam....there is a good possibility there.
Holding vote for now.
Movie night with Mk
Im honestly struggling to come up with Harry's rationale for eating LHF, especially in light of her comment about dfam
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 17:14:29---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I don't find your comments about me insulting, dfam. Just contradictory. You're somehow implying that I have planned this me vs. you standoff, yet at that same time wouldn't be able to anticipate the obvious blunder of explicitly defending a wolf partner. And you're not the first to make these conspiracy comments about me...deb does it almost every time I play with her. But it's just a ridiculous attack, and never turns out to be true
Going into the final 2 rounds, it simply makes no sense to eat a) people who are still open to be wolves, b) people who are somewhat inactive, c) people who would side with me against dfam, and d) people who I have myself considered suspects. Eating LH is probably the stupidest thing I could do.
And the only evidence against dfam isn't the peer pressure eatings. It's almost every eating Whoever the final wolf is clearly doesn't understand the value of a lone wolf having people who aren't voting, firstly. And secondly, I always take the path of least risk as a wolf...I would have to have a ridiculously new ww ploy where I literally play the exact opposite of the way I usually do. Maybe that part is a bit insulting since I would have to be an idiot to make any of these choices None of the eatings make sense if I was a wolf.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 17:55:06---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
Going into the final 2 rounds, it simply makes no sense to eat a) people who are still open to be wolves, b) people who are somewhat inactive, c) people who would side with me against dfam, and d) people who I have myself considered suspects. Eating LH is probably the stupidest thing I could do.
And the only evidence against dfam isn't the peer pressure eatings. It's almost every eating Whoever the final wolf is clearly doesn't understand the value of a lone wolf having people who aren't voting, firstly. And secondly, I always take the path of least risk as a wolf...I would have to have a ridiculously new ww ploy where I literally play the exact opposite of the way I usually do. Maybe that part is a bit insulting since I would have to be an idiot to make any of these choices None of the eatings make sense if I was a wolf.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 17:55:06---
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what are your thoughts on Smithy anyway, personally id be hard pressed to vote him here, but makes him human in your book?
but im not sure what you mean by "all the eating" eating 1 was a typical inactive eating that could have been made by any of us left. Eating 2 made perfect sense, as eating 3 (SORT OF) did...even though the wolves should have been seer hunting so you may have a point there....eating 4 and 5 were bad though, so maybe 'all' the eatings was closer to true than i thought
note: im convinced the chang eating was just good fortune and the wolves did not eat him for any actual seer related evidence
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 18:01:33---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
but im not sure what you mean by "all the eating" eating 1 was a typical inactive eating that could have been made by any of us left. Eating 2 made perfect sense, as eating 3 (SORT OF) did...even though the wolves should have been seer hunting so you may have a point there....eating 4 and 5 were bad though, so maybe 'all' the eatings was closer to true than i thought
note: im convinced the chang eating was just good fortune and the wolves did not eat him for any actual seer related evidence
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 18:01:33---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The only part that makes him human is the fact someone like LH was eaten. As I just added, these eating choices are both risky and ill-chosen if you're either me or Smithy who are experienced in this area. It just makes no sense. There's no way Smithy wouldn't have eaten dfam if he was the final wolf.
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I'm half interested in seeing what dfam would do next round if I got shot...
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That was my feeble attempt at humor, the time reference. My thought was the fact that until Jem was put in a majority did he post more than a few sentences.
So, my remaining thoughts: I am withholding judgment on HP until the end of the round. He tends to get more involved in the game after the first few rounds.
caberet - I sill think she is a good possibility based on her activity so far. The human Cab is much more agressive.
dfamina - I have no read on him not having played many, if any, games previously with him. He does seem invested in the game, for what that's worth.
Longhorn_fan - I think she's playing pretty much as she always does, and I never can tell, if I think she's a wolf she turns out human
mbrady89 - He's another I have no read on, not having played previously with him. He actually seems pretty neutral to me.
Smithy - I don't know what to think. He's not active but that could be because of RL.
The_Spider - He's playing pretty much as he always does, but he's definitely coming off as human, and yeah, he's fooled me before.
So, my remaining thoughts: I am withholding judgment on HP until the end of the round. He tends to get more involved in the game after the first few rounds.
caberet - I sill think she is a good possibility based on her activity so far. The human Cab is much more agressive.
dfamina - I have no read on him not having played many, if any, games previously with him. He does seem invested in the game, for what that's worth.
Longhorn_fan - I think she's playing pretty much as she always does, and I never can tell, if I think she's a wolf she turns out human
mbrady89 - He's another I have no read on, not having played previously with him. He actually seems pretty neutral to me.
Smithy - I don't know what to think. He's not active but that could be because of RL.
The_Spider - He's playing pretty much as he always does, but he's definitely coming off as human, and yeah, he's fooled me before.
This is bradons post from Rd 4 (Jem vs Harry) she accounts for everyone but Jem (her vote choice) and Harry. I'm not saying her comment about Harry isnt potentially wolf-wolf type comment, but its is quite odd for a wolf to do that, to leave only her own partner out of her analysis. I've played enough where Im not surprised by anything anymore, and it could just as easily mean one thing as another, but it does strike me as odd
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
im not seriously considering it, but the temptation to click that little HarryPutter circle and potentially end the game is enticing
nevertheless, I will wait a bit before making any choice, but I am inclined to lean toward dfam at the moment...
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
nevertheless, I will wait a bit before making any choice, but I am inclined to lean toward dfam at the moment...
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I think bradon tried hard to implicate me after I said she was clear, but it almost looks transparent at this point Wolves almost never single out other wolves - and on the rare occasion they do, singling out eachother is almost unheard of.
I'm beginning to consider that dfam pulled a celt this game...where his activity is directly proportional to the role he gets.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 19:02:58---
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I'm beginning to consider that dfam pulled a celt this game...where his activity is directly proportional to the role he gets.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 19:02:58---
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wondering if you are starting to throw a little false bravado at us Harry
nevertheless I will roll with you on THIS one
giving Smithy the opportunity to decide the round, shame on him if he doesn't vote
voting dfam
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 19:37:22---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
nevertheless I will roll with you on THIS one
giving Smithy the opportunity to decide the round, shame on him if he doesn't vote
voting dfam
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 19:37:22---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Smithy - Please lay down your vote!
If you rearead the rounds, bradon mentioned HP several times and HP certainly tried his best to protect her the round she was shot. Obviously I consider HP suspect, but please vote for your fav suspect.
"I discovered I scream the same whether I'm about to be devoured by a Great White or if a piece of seaweed touches my foot." Axl Rose
If you rearead the rounds, bradon mentioned HP several times and HP certainly tried his best to protect her the round she was shot. Obviously I consider HP suspect, but please vote for your fav suspect.
"I discovered I scream the same whether I'm about to be devoured by a Great White or if a piece of seaweed touches my foot." Axl Rose
If you call 3 sentences my best, I'm afraid to find out what you call my worst
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Ive read round 5 a bit again. In addition to finding it a bit annoying (maybe a tad suspicious as well) that Harry never bothered to explain his analysis, he also made sure to vote away from Bradon's vote. Doesnt prove anything, but surely Harry would be careful not to vote the same way as Bradon, more or less he would expect her to switch to his vote....Again probably wont change my vote as I'm inclined to believe Smithy will vote Harry anyway, but I won't really be too upset if harry goes down, provided the guns don't turn on me next
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
HarryPutter wrote:
That's not fair, Harry, I'm always active. The only exception was that game of Smithy's when I was gone for a few rounds due to real life issues. This round is different, of course, because I've never before had this kind of back-and-forth with anyone. But I'd like to think that I'm an active participant in all of my games.
Aside from that, I believe I've made all of my points. I'm pretty sure I'll be asleep when Smithy gets on before work, so we'll see how things go.
I'm beginning to consider that dfam pulled a celt this game...where his activity is directly proportional to the role he gets.
That's not fair, Harry, I'm always active. The only exception was that game of Smithy's when I was gone for a few rounds due to real life issues. This round is different, of course, because I've never before had this kind of back-and-forth with anyone. But I'd like to think that I'm an active participant in all of my games.
Aside from that, I believe I've made all of my points. I'm pretty sure I'll be asleep when Smithy gets on before work, so we'll see how things go.
yeah I found that comment to be, well wrong, as well....but dont know if it impacts my analysis of what harry is
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
You're moderately active, but definitely not THIS active. Maybe that's a cheap criticism, but this is definitely a rare showing for you if you are human (which is almost impossible at this point from my perspective)
And like I said, I was just pretty much just busy earlier. Couldn't really post much. But yea, pretty sure smithy will vote me too, but I don't want to be blamed post-game for handing the wolves the game just because I was a bit busy earlier.
THOUGH I should point out the short nights should almost clear me in a superficial way. I wouldn't want to speed up the playing time during the period I was super-busy. Just make sure dfam is shot next round
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 20:46:14---
Index for WW/WTB databases - https://ksteven.github.io/playground/ (Data refreshed: 2021-12-07)
And like I said, I was just pretty much just busy earlier. Couldn't really post much. But yea, pretty sure smithy will vote me too, but I don't want to be blamed post-game for handing the wolves the game just because I was a bit busy earlier.
THOUGH I should point out the short nights should almost clear me in a superficial way. I wouldn't want to speed up the playing time during the period I was super-busy. Just make sure dfam is shot next round
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 20:46:14---
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logging off and keeping my vote, hopefully I awake to a finished game
and Tom Brady stops sucking a## good Lord
(oh and I will add, I believe you that you're busy, but if you really have the time to actually DO these analyses you speak of, the extra 10-15 to post them shouldnt be an issue )
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 20:57:56---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
and Tom Brady stops sucking a## good Lord
(oh and I will add, I believe you that you're busy, but if you really have the time to actually DO these analyses you speak of, the extra 10-15 to post them shouldnt be an issue )
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 20:57:56---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Drat. Just remembered that Smithy lives in England. It's somewhere around 3 am for him. I'm thinking we won't be hearing from him again for a while.
It seems that the remaining suspects are dfamina and HP. If the wolf is Smithy or Spider, then heaven help us. Smithy has a good enough excuse re. time zones. His main suspects are HP and Spidey, so if dfamina is shot and the game continues, then both Spidey and HP had better look for shelter.
I'm obviously most suspicious of HP. That's of course under the assumption that dfam wouldn't bus wolf partners when there was no real need.
Spider is being his usual proud, flamboyant self. He's a hard read for me. But if dfam is shot and the game continues, then I will probably consider Spider more suspicious than HP. Why? Because Spider is in HP's corner this round.
That's all for now.
"I discovered I scream the same whether I'm about to be devoured by a Great White or if a piece of seaweed touches my foot." Axl Rose
It seems that the remaining suspects are dfamina and HP. If the wolf is Smithy or Spider, then heaven help us. Smithy has a good enough excuse re. time zones. His main suspects are HP and Spidey, so if dfamina is shot and the game continues, then both Spidey and HP had better look for shelter.
I'm obviously most suspicious of HP. That's of course under the assumption that dfam wouldn't bus wolf partners when there was no real need.
Spider is being his usual proud, flamboyant self. He's a hard read for me. But if dfam is shot and the game continues, then I will probably consider Spider more suspicious than HP. Why? Because Spider is in HP's corner this round.
That's all for now.
"I discovered I scream the same whether I'm about to be devoured by a Great White or if a piece of seaweed touches my foot." Axl Rose
Don't ask me why I'm up at this hour but here I am.
Given that putter and dfam are my main suspects now I could easily leave this to the koin flip... But heck that isn't my style, I would rather be bravely wrong than win through cowardice.
I said I'd rule dfam out but I have to give credit, putter's posts have been pretty convincing. He's right to say the LH eating as some kind of frame of dfam doesn't fit his usual MO, coupled with the bobbi comments we would be seeing a pretty significant shift from his usual wolf playing style.
Coupled with what was said about the "bussings"/passive immoveable vote for Chris... I'm going for dfam. Not all that confident because we only have good players left who could easily deceive, but that's where I'm at. Fingers crossed.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 21:58:10---
Given that putter and dfam are my main suspects now I could easily leave this to the koin flip... But heck that isn't my style, I would rather be bravely wrong than win through cowardice.
I said I'd rule dfam out but I have to give credit, putter's posts have been pretty convincing. He's right to say the LH eating as some kind of frame of dfam doesn't fit his usual MO, coupled with the bobbi comments we would be seeing a pretty significant shift from his usual wolf playing style.
Coupled with what was said about the "bussings"/passive immoveable vote for Chris... I'm going for dfam. Not all that confident because we only have good players left who could easily deceive, but that's where I'm at. Fingers crossed.
---This message was edited on 2013-11-24 21:58:10---
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