Braingle Lite



Birthday Line

Category:Probability
Submitted By:something
Fun:*** (2.3)
Difficulty:**** (3.2)



At a movie theater, the manager announces that they will give a free ticket to the first person in line whose birthday is the same as someone who has already bought a ticket. You have the option of getting in line at any time. Assuming that you don't know anyone else's birthday, that birthdays are distributed randomly throughout the year, etc., what position in line gives you the greatest chance of being the first duplicate birthday?

Show Answer



Comments on this teaser


Posted by Princess_Neopia12/15/02
You must have worked REALLY, REALLY hard. Your excellent at this.

Posted by od-105/02/03
OH MY!

Posted by beanie8908/30/03
uh....right.

Posted by Varthen07/02/04
This teaser should be called... HEADACHE IN A BOX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by trickster200509/10/05
r u a genius? :o

Posted by lessthanjake78901/14/06
i remember hearing about the birthday phenomenon but didnt quite understand it (i was sleeping in math class at the time) but it was quite interesting and i think this is a "practical" application of the numbers. nicely done and quite interesting.

Posted by glenn22204/13/06
That was my next guess...

Posted by NomadShadow04/25/06
I really loved it, I got the answer using difference equations. Anyway, what if someone had a twin brother! wouldn't be better to stand second in line with the brother standing first;)

Posted by Unstumpable06/20/06
wow, that would be annoying to type all of that, but the probibility works out all right, good teaser

Posted by Dedrik08/09/06
:D Good problem

Posted by foraneagle210/06/06
Classic probability question. Another way of saying it: With as few as 20 random people in a room, the chance of two having the same birthday > 50%.

Posted by ztodd10/21/06
That's not saying quite the same thing - that's just saying that the probability that either you or someone ahead of you will win is > 50%, but it doesn't necessarily mean you have the best chance.

Posted by pearl560810/25/06
Great teaser. i'm in AP Statistics in my high school, its my favorite class, this was an interesting problem

Posted by roaddevil02/08/07
What if there is only two people at the movies? You can't figure probability with no numbers to start with!

Posted by chickwithbrains09/13/07
uhhh.... what what what what??? Holy cow, I definitely didn't get this one!! :o :0 !!!!!

Posted by ZJT_0502/26/08
One Word - WOW.

Posted by Anushka04/11/08
ver clever. and by the way...u must have a lot off free time on ur hands :wink:

Posted by javaguru12/08/08
Great problem! I'm surprised given how long this problem has been posted that nobody bothered to give the probability of winning the free ticket, which is approximately 3.0628%. 19th place in line is almost as good at 3.0608%. This is a pain to calculate recursively by hand but very easy using a spreadsheet. At 20 people the probability that two people have the same birthday is approximately 41.1% and the cumulative probability that someone in line before you wins the ticket is approximately 36.67%. Also, the point at which the probability of two people having the same birthday exceeds 50% is with 23 people, not 20.

Posted by javaguru05/14/09
Janeys- The answer given for the teaser is correct. You need to take into consideration the CUMULATIVE probability that someone in front of you wins the ticket before you get to the front. The fact that at 23 people there is a better than 50% chance that two have the same birthday isn't really relevant to the problem. I just included that in my previous comment as a point of interest.

Posted by rlc32707/17/10
i would think the last person in line at any time where position P < or = 20.

Posted by normadize03/29/12
I know this is old but it took me only a few minutes to solve and my solution is quite different, so I thought I might as well post it. In my opinion the answer given is convoluted. Let p(k) be the probability that the first duplicate bday is at person k+1 in the line, i.e. the first k people have all different bdays and the bday of person k+1 matches one of the previous k bdays. No need for any conditional probabilities (why the Bayes equation in the answer?) since all events are independent and p(k) can be expressed directly: p(k) = 365/365 * 364/365 * ... * (365 - k + 1)/365 * k/365 (easily verifiable thoruhg simulation for those who doubt it) It says that the 1st person can have any bday (365/365), the 2nd person has a different bday than the 1st (364/365), and so on, and person k+1 has one of the first k bdays (k/365). We just need to maximize p(k) as a function of k, that's it. It is easy to show it has only one maxima. The current form is ugly but we can do a trick, that is to find an equivalent, continuous function. We can write p(k) as: p(k) = k/365^(k+1) * product_of k {from 365-k+1 to 365} Taking the natural log: ln(p(k)) = ln(k/365^(k+1)) + sum ln(k) {from 365-k+1 to 365} The sum of discrete logs can be approximated by an integral of the continuous log function given that the terms in the sum are large (whoever knows of Sterling's factorial approx proof is already familiar) and so we can consider the continuous function q(x): q(x) = ln(x/365^(x+1)) + integral ln(x) dx {from 365-x+1 to 365} using parts: q(x) = ln(x/365^(x+1)) + 365 ln 365 + (366-x) ln(366-x) - x + 1 Differentiating, and equating to zero, we get: 1/x = ln (365 / (366-x)) ... or ... exp(1/x) = 365/(366-x) This has a unique solution since exp(1/x) is decreasing on [1,365] while 1/(366-x) is increasing on [1,365]. This is computed numerically to give x = 19.3676 so then our k+1 = 20, which is the solution.




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