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Swindler's Dice

Probability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.


Fun:*** (2.7)
Difficulty:** (2.07)
Submitted By:silver_sword


A swindler once approached an honest man with a die. He handed him the die and told him about the bet. The die had six sides. If the man rolled a ONE, he wins, and gets back twice the amount of his bet. If not, the swindler would keep the bet.

" chances are only one out of six," retorted the man.

"True," grinned the swindler, "But I'll give you three tries to get a one."

The man considered. Three tries, with each try having a 1/6 chance of winning. So his chances of winning are 1/2. Why not give it a try?

Is the bet really fair? If not, what are the chances of the man winning?

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