The Werewolf Game
Game #3455: Werewolf Game - School's Out
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This game finished in 7 rounds.
Celt left town early one morning for summer basketball camp, dreams of becoming the next Celtics superstar in his head.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-05 12:11:26---
Fake The Disco!
---This message was edited on 2022-06-05 12:11:26---
Fake The Disco!
I'm suspecting Spid now
We are on 7 with 2 wolves so the wolves need 2 human shots to win. I doubt Spid and Misc are partners.
Theoretically by voting Jem he can keep bRIN in and if bRIN is a human he just needs to either get Misc and I shot or get bRIN shot and use that to push Misc or I. If bRIN is a wolf it just limits this potential to Misc and I so less reward in that regard but it does mean that the wolves were in a worse position last round.
Of course it could be the other way around with bRIN jumping on Spid's suspicion but either way I don't think a wolf would jump on another wolf's suspicion like that so I'm thinking they aren't aligned
Fake The Disco!
We are on 7 with 2 wolves so the wolves need 2 human shots to win. I doubt Spid and Misc are partners.
Theoretically by voting Jem he can keep bRIN in and if bRIN is a human he just needs to either get Misc and I shot or get bRIN shot and use that to push Misc or I. If bRIN is a wolf it just limits this potential to Misc and I so less reward in that regard but it does mean that the wolves were in a worse position last round.
Of course it could be the other way around with bRIN jumping on Spid's suspicion but either way I don't think a wolf would jump on another wolf's suspicion like that so I'm thinking they aren't aligned
Fake The Disco!
At least we have wolves that are gifting us short nights, that's gracious. I was fully expecting to come back and see Jem shot and flip human and I wasn't disappointed. Well, I was disappointed but not surprised to paraphrase
I'm pretty sold on brin being a wolf, but I'm not sure I agree with your logic, Rove. Spid defending brin to blatantly there would be a risky strategy. Albeit it wasn't a defence verbally but we all know that votes carry more weight than posts in terms of evidence.
That being said a Jem voter rather than a brin voter being eaten is curious... Perhaps this does allay some suspicion on her. Because she is at risk of being shot in a big way here and then the previous round brin voters would be viewed upon favourably in terms of future bullets.
I think it might be time to go back the the drawing board. Some pair analysis wouldn't go amiss...
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
I'm pretty sold on brin being a wolf, but I'm not sure I agree with your logic, Rove. Spid defending brin to blatantly there would be a risky strategy. Albeit it wasn't a defence verbally but we all know that votes carry more weight than posts in terms of evidence.
That being said a Jem voter rather than a brin voter being eaten is curious... Perhaps this does allay some suspicion on her. Because she is at risk of being shot in a big way here and then the previous round brin voters would be viewed upon favourably in terms of future bullets.
I think it might be time to go back the the drawing board. Some pair analysis wouldn't go amiss...
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
Skybet wrote:
I said they were unlikely to be partners, though
Also Spid could totally pull a Sky
Fake The Disco!
Spid defending brin to blatantly there would be a risky strategy
I said they were unlikely to be partners, though
Also Spid could totally pull a Sky
Fake The Disco!
I can't count, I thought the votes were 4-2 when I said it was unlikely to change. Although it still would have tied up with the late show.
Trying not to let hindsight colour my judgement too much with regards to spid. I see where rove is coming from and it's certainly a tempting paranoid path to go down but if spid was a wolf and the two choices human it wouldn't really matter what, if anything, he did. The human read I had on him previously has dissolved into neutrality now, though I do also think he would have dragged the early nights out fully (perfectly justifiably given the inactives).
I think Sky is likewise going down too paranoid a route when seemingly discussing eating soft clears pre-emptively.
I won't rush in but a hat-trick making brin vote is my most likely course this round, although I could be swayed to vote pretty much anyone.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-05 14:10:46---
Trying not to let hindsight colour my judgement too much with regards to spid. I see where rove is coming from and it's certainly a tempting paranoid path to go down but if spid was a wolf and the two choices human it wouldn't really matter what, if anything, he did. The human read I had on him previously has dissolved into neutrality now, though I do also think he would have dragged the early nights out fully (perfectly justifiably given the inactives).
I think Sky is likewise going down too paranoid a route when seemingly discussing eating soft clears pre-emptively.
I won't rush in but a hat-trick making brin vote is my most likely course this round, although I could be swayed to vote pretty much anyone.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-05 14:10:46---
Post above was somewhat tired and piecemeal edited, apologies. I wish we had four day jubilee weekends more often.
The_Smithy wrote:
In this scenario bRIN is more likely to vote a human on 7 and 5 than Jem
Fake The Disco!
if spid was a wolf and the two choices human it wouldn't really matter what, if anything, he did.
In this scenario bRIN is more likely to vote a human on 7 and 5 than Jem
Fake The Disco!
The_Smithy wrote:
That sounds like a ton of fun.
So I thought jem and celt were good shots (obviously not) and largely based my ideas on them being quieter players this game. I need to relook at everyone this game and see what I can do to actually supply some reasoning.
Rove is making a lot of logical points this game. I know past games Rove has played a chaos wolf game, but Rove stated that he was changing his style this game. So... what does that mean? Logical wolf-Rove or logical human-Rove?
Spider has a "tell"....? (More like a tone) he's had in wolf games that I'm not seeing here.
Sky has a lot of serious thoughts this game. I'd say it feels like he's trying to drive the game but I'm not seeing a ton of people changing votrs based on his opinions. In fact the game had been pretty 50/50 so far. So I feel Sky has been sincere.
Brin is missing her quiet, confident tone this game. She and deb are sort of on par for me with their reasonings (or lack of) for choosing their suspects.
Smithy's last post was a little disorganized but he has a reason plus has been making sense mostly this game.
Just some thoughts before I go out to dinner. I will come back later and maybe think of some pairings and see who has voted whom this game.
If I had to say someone right now I'm still tossing around brin or possibly deb, with Rove and Sky being dark horses
Post above was somewhat tired and piecemeal edited, apologies. I wish we had four day jubilee weekends more often.
That sounds like a ton of fun.
So I thought jem and celt were good shots (obviously not) and largely based my ideas on them being quieter players this game. I need to relook at everyone this game and see what I can do to actually supply some reasoning.
Rove is making a lot of logical points this game. I know past games Rove has played a chaos wolf game, but Rove stated that he was changing his style this game. So... what does that mean? Logical wolf-Rove or logical human-Rove?
Spider has a "tell"....? (More like a tone) he's had in wolf games that I'm not seeing here.
Sky has a lot of serious thoughts this game. I'd say it feels like he's trying to drive the game but I'm not seeing a ton of people changing votrs based on his opinions. In fact the game had been pretty 50/50 so far. So I feel Sky has been sincere.
Brin is missing her quiet, confident tone this game. She and deb are sort of on par for me with their reasonings (or lack of) for choosing their suspects.
Smithy's last post was a little disorganized but he has a reason plus has been making sense mostly this game.
Just some thoughts before I go out to dinner. I will come back later and maybe think of some pairings and see who has voted whom this game.
If I had to say someone right now I'm still tossing around brin or possibly deb, with Rove and Sky being dark horses
I think I will go with a brin vote this round also
Her posts are unbrinlike
Interesting point there rove which I will agree with
I have seen wolf dan protect wolf x so I can see the vote brin then switch
I really don't have any other suspects than those 2
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Her posts are unbrinlike
Interesting point there rove which I will agree with
I have seen wolf dan protect wolf x so I can see the vote brin then switch
I really don't have any other suspects than those 2
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After rereading last round I feel more confident in my suspects
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I'm leaning towards there being a wolf in Spid/bRIN and a wolf in Smith/Sky, I'm worried about the latter two going under the radar this round but it would probably be better to shoot someone with more connections to analyze
Fake The Disco!
Fake The Disco!
I just don't think smithy because of the quick nights
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Celt:
Smithy:
Sky:
Looking back, it's possible that Celt was eaten because one of (or both) of the wolves couldn't justify a Celt shot
Fake The Disco!
Also I would make sure night 1 times out 100% of the time
Smithy:
celtichero wrote:
This is actually pretty convincing to me.
Also I would make sure night 1 times out 100% of the time
This is actually pretty convincing to me.
Sky:
The_Smithy wrote:
Same.
celtichero wrote:
This is actually pretty convincing to me.
Also I would make sure night 1 times out 100% of the time
This is actually pretty convincing to me.
Same.
Looking back, it's possible that Celt was eaten because one of (or both) of the wolves couldn't justify a Celt shot
Fake The Disco!
Getting back from engagement party. Catch up shortly
Notable and interesting that rove is suddenly on me aggressively after I went against him last round. Maybe a preemptive strike, but need some time to get back home and get into a comfortable spot to analyze. Not stalling, just out all day
Yeah his suspicion of me feels too overwrought and elaborate. It was a 4 4 tie I made a choice. Will try to more effectively convey my thoughts later.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-05 17:47:34---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Notable and interesting that rove is suddenly on me aggressively after I went against him last round. Maybe a preemptive strike, but need some time to get back home and get into a comfortable spot to analyze. Not stalling, just out all day
Yeah his suspicion of me feels too overwrought and elaborate. It was a 4 4 tie I made a choice. Will try to more effectively convey my thoughts later.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-05 17:47:34---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
Weren't you against me round 3? Wouldn't that make my reason for going after you less likely to be that since it happened 2 rounds after your reasoning and directly after my reasoning?
The_Spider wrote:
Feel like this is downplaying the fact you had the final say that round
Then again, maybe I'm just overplaying again
Fake The Disco!
Getting back from engagement party. Catch up shortly
Notable and interesting that rove is suddenly on me aggressively after I went against him last round.
Notable and interesting that rove is suddenly on me aggressively after I went against him last round.
Weren't you against me round 3? Wouldn't that make my reason for going after you less likely to be that since it happened 2 rounds after your reasoning and directly after my reasoning?
The_Spider wrote:
It was a 4 4 tie I made a choice.
Feel like this is downplaying the fact you had the final say that round
Then again, maybe I'm just overplaying again
Fake The Disco!
Well do you know Brin is human? How is me being in position to break a tie being used against me. I'll explain in a fully when I have time to consolidate. If Brin is human and I I her you'd have likely just tweaked your argument the other way and found the same conclusion
You're too narrow focused on me, having an 'answer' for everything, it feels contrived, like your plan this round is 'suspect spider'
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
You're too narrow focused on me, having an 'answer' for everything, it feels contrived, like your plan this round is 'suspect spider'
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
I don't, but that's what I'm leaning to
The_Spider wrote:
It's what you did in that position
The_Spider wrote:
As I said shooting Jem is better for your game if you are a wolf
Fake The Disco!
Well do you know Brin is human?
I don't, but that's what I'm leaning to
The_Spider wrote:
How is me being in position to break a tie being used against me
It's what you did in that position
The_Spider wrote:
If Brin is human and I I her you'd have likely just tweaked your argument the other way and found the same conclusion
As I said shooting Jem is better for your game if you are a wolf
Fake The Disco!
The_Spider wrote:
I've also stated why I'm starting to be suspicious of Sky and Smith
I could argue that you've been focused on me this round, but to be fair I haven't given you the chance to speak about anyone else, so I will cool down on it for the moment
Fake The Disco!
You're too narrow focused on me, having an 'answer' for everything, it feels contrived, like your plan this round is 'suspect spider'
I've also stated why I'm starting to be suspicious of Sky and Smith
I could argue that you've been focused on me this round, but to be fair I haven't given you the chance to speak about anyone else, so I will cool down on it for the moment
Fake The Disco!
I agree with you on the rationale for the celt eating. The wolves (unless a by chance red herring eating) seemed in tune to the idea he was being viewed as 'cleared or partially so by the game at large. As the closest thing to a cleared human, at least a reasonable outlook, he was a good eating choice.
I'm not sure Brin makes sense for these eatings, the theme is too consistent, inactive, Inactive, partially inactive, most game-alert in celt. Brin is the Oracle, but I'm not so sure she would be ad on top of it on the eating end to throw out this pattern of eatings. Maybe that's a misjudgement of Brin, or maybe that explains slayer over Andrea. I want to hear one type of tone/tact by Brin to feel comfortable about her, but I'm not super suspicious of her just right now ( I will be if I don't hear what I'm looking for generally speaking)
Smithy sounds human to me, not sure I have anything there to sway me any other way. Sky I'm not as charitable about with the game winding down, but I'm short of saying I'm wary of him.
That would leave deb, rove, misc if I've counted correctly. Deb has left no major impression on me. I think human in broad strokes, but nothing that I can't see past her as a wolf doing. Will take a look back at the round 3 votes now that we have jems ID and we know it was 3 humans in the mix.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I'm not sure Brin makes sense for these eatings, the theme is too consistent, inactive, Inactive, partially inactive, most game-alert in celt. Brin is the Oracle, but I'm not so sure she would be ad on top of it on the eating end to throw out this pattern of eatings. Maybe that's a misjudgement of Brin, or maybe that explains slayer over Andrea. I want to hear one type of tone/tact by Brin to feel comfortable about her, but I'm not super suspicious of her just right now ( I will be if I don't hear what I'm looking for generally speaking)
Smithy sounds human to me, not sure I have anything there to sway me any other way. Sky I'm not as charitable about with the game winding down, but I'm short of saying I'm wary of him.
That would leave deb, rove, misc if I've counted correctly. Deb has left no major impression on me. I think human in broad strokes, but nothing that I can't see past her as a wolf doing. Will take a look back at the round 3 votes now that we have jems ID and we know it was 3 humans in the mix.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
My comments about the eatings might also apply to deb, and we can rule out deb/brin im pretty sure (bussing) trying to look at the game if Brin is human, and if she is wolf, and what makes sense
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I suppose with the way the round evolved Celt could be considered a good eating. But if brin does get shot and flips wolf, I would say the opposite. Which is what gives me pause when wishing to pursue a brin shot. Unless that was the plan. Spid doubling down on being doubtful of a brin shot this round worries me in this regard. Brin is basically a glass cannon wolf now if she is indeed one. If she's exposed her partner likely will be too. Which again gives me more reason to believe that she probably isn't. Otherwise it's an all or nothing strategy.
I'm not sure what it is with rove but he just isn't flagging to me, however the MO of the wolves this game would fit. I could see him making the eatings, not letting night time out etc. And I would say the same of misc. Deb I'm not so sure on.
I think Misc would be my preferred shot currently by a small margin, on balance.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
I'm not sure what it is with rove but he just isn't flagging to me, however the MO of the wolves this game would fit. I could see him making the eatings, not letting night time out etc. And I would say the same of misc. Deb I'm not so sure on.
I think Misc would be my preferred shot currently by a small margin, on balance.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
Without wanting to sound too sycophantic, I am starting to get that nagging feeling that I'm going to be surprised by the end of the game when I see the scoreboard. I don't think we can understate the significance of this round before potential must lynch.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
I think we can get a l of mileage around deb/brin exclusion and the threat a human Brin poses to the wolves. Coming up with an outlook, but I'm much stronger in front of my desktop in the office so may be abridged
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Tier 1
Misc, Rove
Tier 2
deb, Spid, brin
Tier 3
Smithy
My current risk tiers. And I think almost any pairing could make sense of players that share a tier apart from deb/brin.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
Misc, Rove
Tier 2
deb, Spid, brin
Tier 3
Smithy
My current risk tiers. And I think almost any pairing could make sense of players that share a tier apart from deb/brin.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
Skybet wrote:
I presume lower is less risky?
Fake The Disco!
Tier 1
Misc, Rove
Tier 2
deb, Spid, brin
Tier 3
Smithy
My current risk tiers. And I think almost any pairing could make sense of players that share a tier apart from deb/brin.
Misc, Rove
Tier 2
deb, Spid, brin
Tier 3
Smithy
My current risk tiers. And I think almost any pairing could make sense of players that share a tier apart from deb/brin.
I presume lower is less risky?
Fake The Disco!
If I remember correctly Misc has long posts on average as a wolf but I'm not seeing that here
Fake The Disco!
Fake The Disco!
Skybet wrote:
Do you think it would make sense for a Misc+Rove pair to eat Celt over Cone/bRIN/Spid?
Fake The Disco!
Tier 1
Misc, Rove
Tier 2
deb, Spid, brin
Tier 3
Smithy
My current risk tiers. And I think almost any pairing could make sense of players that share a tier apart from deb/brin.
Misc, Rove
Tier 2
deb, Spid, brin
Tier 3
Smithy
My current risk tiers. And I think almost any pairing could make sense of players that share a tier apart from deb/brin.
Do you think it would make sense for a Misc+Rove pair to eat Celt over Cone/bRIN/Spid?
Fake The Disco!
I am totally exhausted and have no drive to look through anything right now.
We havent heard from brin at all so I think she needs a chance to rebutt. I will vote tomorrow after sleep.
We havent heard from brin at all so I think she needs a chance to rebutt. I will vote tomorrow after sleep.
I still haven't changed my mind
Curious sky has changed his tune
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Curious sky has changed his tune
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Rove_Tarts wrote:
Eating Brin would be suicidal, deb/Celt feels fairly lateral (at least enough where I don't understand the impetus for the comparison) hard to speak on against the appearance of my own potential eating, but there certainly wouldbe danger for you in eating me.
Inclined to agree with a rove/misc approach this round but there is time for a full analysis tmrw
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Skybet wrote:
Do you think it would make sense for a Misc+Rove pair to eat Celt over Cone/bRIN/Spid?
Tier 1
Misc, Rove
Tier 2
deb, Spid, brin
Tier 3
Smithy
My current risk tiers. And I think almost any pairing could make sense of players that share a tier apart from deb/brin.
Misc, Rove
Tier 2
deb, Spid, brin
Tier 3
Smithy
My current risk tiers. And I think almost any pairing could make sense of players that share a tier apart from deb/brin.
Do you think it would make sense for a Misc+Rove pair to eat Celt over Cone/bRIN/Spid?
Eating Brin would be suicidal, deb/Celt feels fairly lateral (at least enough where I don't understand the impetus for the comparison) hard to speak on against the appearance of my own potential eating, but there certainly wouldbe danger for you in eating me.
Inclined to agree with a rove/misc approach this round but there is time for a full analysis tmrw
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
Why?
Fake The Disco!
Eating Brin would be suicidal
Why?
Fake The Disco!
My gut is still telling me rove or Misc, but I have been so lucky in the past few games, I can't be sure... I mean really, how long can that hold out?
My worry is, If we vote either of them and I'm wrong,...
I gotta stick with my gut. Going Rove.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
My worry is, If we vote either of them and I'm wrong,...
I gotta stick with my gut. Going Rove.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
It's getting late
Going with brin
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Going with brin
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Why though, deb? Not sure I get the vote. The events of last round and the eating have, for me at least, granted a stay of execution at minimum. I would want to pursue other targets this round. My only pause is the "universal acceptance" of misc/Rove being viable, which often makes me twitchy. But then again that could also mean that it's the most logical answer. Can they be excluded as a pair? I don't think so from memory. Current gut is Misc/Rove with Misc/Deb or Deb/Rove as backups. I feel confident about it, but I've been here many, many times before ensue paranoia chronicles 2.
I'm voting Misc.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 03:19:48---
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
I'm voting Misc.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 03:19:48---
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
I'm also still willing to be swayed based on some better analysis than I've made. Cough pair analysis Spid cough.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
Rove_Tarts wrote:
You need mw to explain why eating someone being dubbed The Oracle after (in the context given correctly) naming 2 suspects is foolhardy?
Will be inthe office soon
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
Why?
Eating Brin would be suicidal
Why?
You need mw to explain why eating someone being dubbed The Oracle after (in the context given correctly) naming 2 suspects is foolhardy?
Will be inthe office soon
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Sorry if I'm missing something obvious but why does the Celt eating make brin look human?
Have done birds eye view type pair analysis on my readthroughs for other purposes, not sure there is too much more to uncover, but will give it a shot.
I will quickly speak up in my own defense. A wolf busses a partner in Round 1 when no other player is likely to get shot and you might as well get on the bandwagon. A wolf looking at two 6 day inactives knows his partner is getting shot in Rd 1 or Rd 2, so it is feasible that they would try to get some points aggressively going after 1 since it is inevitable. In my defense, I then certainly would time out night 1 (to keep Andrea alive), else the pursuit of a bus in Round 1 really has some stakes. I'm saying in general, the round 1 bus is a bit differently when the other inactive escapes harm. Who knows, maybe Deb was just a little reckless (in the event this is the pair only).
Now on to pairs....
I think Deb/Brin is fairly ironclad, but I'm not doing anything ingenuous with this one, but it's a start.
Rove/Misc They have a bit of banter in Round 2, not sure how to evaluate it, sometimes wolves feel comfortable talking to eachother as a post volume outlet, but at the same time sometimes they avoid too much interaction. So it's really a tossup. According to Brin (there is no official record) Rove voted Misc quickly in Round 1. Soon after he say Misc is pinging human (slighlty) to him. Not implausible for a person to change their mind on the back of a few posts, but interesting interaction.
Smithy/Brin This isn't Deb/Brin lock solid, bussing in Round 3 (although absent seer changes the dynamic) happens, although with a wolf down already it should not be a 'right off the bat' strategy for most wolf pairs. Either Smithy really was very risk averse about the minor heat Brin was getting or he just tried to ride the fine line of a toothless bus for down the road credit. Longwinded, basically I view this as fairly unlikely (the triple up on Brin by Smithy I think reinforces that). It wouldn't be earth-shattering if I have this wrong but I'm not betting on them being a pair.
Deb/Rove A bit of end round banter, kind of a shadow of the earlier Rove/Misc stuff. Not sure how to read. Not enough to reliably project what this stuff means. Rove's rapid firing questions/comments, might be in line with his general 'stay busy' wolf playstyle here and there, but nothing substantial.
Deb/Smithy Deb defended Smithy by reference on a time basis a couple times. I am inclined to think Deb wouldn't be as brazen (timing is one of the few objective/falsifiable methods of evaluating a person (it's essentially an alibi), so Deb runs the risk of looking bad if this claim about Smithy is falsified. Maybe I'm over-pursuing this, the danger of pair analysis is you leave your discipline at the door in trying to figure things out too quickly. Could still be a pair, but there are grounds to downgrade it I think.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 06:27:33---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I will quickly speak up in my own defense. A wolf busses a partner in Round 1 when no other player is likely to get shot and you might as well get on the bandwagon. A wolf looking at two 6 day inactives knows his partner is getting shot in Rd 1 or Rd 2, so it is feasible that they would try to get some points aggressively going after 1 since it is inevitable. In my defense, I then certainly would time out night 1 (to keep Andrea alive), else the pursuit of a bus in Round 1 really has some stakes. I'm saying in general, the round 1 bus is a bit differently when the other inactive escapes harm. Who knows, maybe Deb was just a little reckless (in the event this is the pair only).
Now on to pairs....
I think Deb/Brin is fairly ironclad, but I'm not doing anything ingenuous with this one, but it's a start.
Rove/Misc They have a bit of banter in Round 2, not sure how to evaluate it, sometimes wolves feel comfortable talking to eachother as a post volume outlet, but at the same time sometimes they avoid too much interaction. So it's really a tossup. According to Brin (there is no official record) Rove voted Misc quickly in Round 1. Soon after he say Misc is pinging human (slighlty) to him. Not implausible for a person to change their mind on the back of a few posts, but interesting interaction.
Smithy/Brin This isn't Deb/Brin lock solid, bussing in Round 3 (although absent seer changes the dynamic) happens, although with a wolf down already it should not be a 'right off the bat' strategy for most wolf pairs. Either Smithy really was very risk averse about the minor heat Brin was getting or he just tried to ride the fine line of a toothless bus for down the road credit. Longwinded, basically I view this as fairly unlikely (the triple up on Brin by Smithy I think reinforces that). It wouldn't be earth-shattering if I have this wrong but I'm not betting on them being a pair.
Deb/Rove A bit of end round banter, kind of a shadow of the earlier Rove/Misc stuff. Not sure how to read. Not enough to reliably project what this stuff means. Rove's rapid firing questions/comments, might be in line with his general 'stay busy' wolf playstyle here and there, but nothing substantial.
Deb/Smithy Deb defended Smithy by reference on a time basis a couple times. I am inclined to think Deb wouldn't be as brazen (timing is one of the few objective/falsifiable methods of evaluating a person (it's essentially an alibi), so Deb runs the risk of looking bad if this claim about Smithy is falsified. Maybe I'm over-pursuing this, the danger of pair analysis is you leave your discipline at the door in trying to figure things out too quickly. Could still be a pair, but there are grounds to downgrade it I think.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 06:27:33---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
There a few pieces here or there but I would be forcing conclusions....now for my what should we do here post....
General outlook
-----------------------
As I noted earlier in my response to Rove, if Rove/Misc are humans, we have to consider that the wolves had the option of eating Brin last night. Especially given she was/is in danger of being shot, this would amplify concerns over Rove/Misc. This is also boosted by the possibility of a dead Oracle sending Rove Misc Wolves from the grave. So I'm saying if all of Brin/Rove/Misc are human, the wolves seemed to have missed an opening.
If we try to play by calculus, both Brin/Deb should be safeguarded (to keep the most rock solid pair exclusion in play, or force the wolves to concede an eating on one of them) we know at least one wolf is nearly certainly among Sky-Smithy-Rove-Misc (me). If I am right about Deb/Smithy, or Smithy in general, we can hedge on keeping Smithy alive here too.
That would bring us to Sky, Rove, Misc, and me on the table. I know it's not me, so either I have Smithy read wrong, which is certainly possible, it's Brin/Sky, or Brin has hit on (or is prepared to bus) one of Rove/Misc. Maybe I'm not saying very much when you boil all this down, but I'm just trying to find the shooting choice that gives us the best end-game odds. I think Deb is the worst shot here, because there are solid grounds for ruling her out with multiple people, and the wolves might have to concede something to us with her anyway. Brin is very double-edged, it's a roll-of-the-dice approach to get ahead of the game, so it comes down to risk assessment.
Will consider further. Smithy/Sky is probably just paranoia inspired, but it's by no means impossible.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 07:07:06---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
General outlook
-----------------------
As I noted earlier in my response to Rove, if Rove/Misc are humans, we have to consider that the wolves had the option of eating Brin last night. Especially given she was/is in danger of being shot, this would amplify concerns over Rove/Misc. This is also boosted by the possibility of a dead Oracle sending Rove Misc Wolves from the grave. So I'm saying if all of Brin/Rove/Misc are human, the wolves seemed to have missed an opening.
If we try to play by calculus, both Brin/Deb should be safeguarded (to keep the most rock solid pair exclusion in play, or force the wolves to concede an eating on one of them) we know at least one wolf is nearly certainly among Sky-Smithy-Rove-Misc (me). If I am right about Deb/Smithy, or Smithy in general, we can hedge on keeping Smithy alive here too.
That would bring us to Sky, Rove, Misc, and me on the table. I know it's not me, so either I have Smithy read wrong, which is certainly possible, it's Brin/Sky, or Brin has hit on (or is prepared to bus) one of Rove/Misc. Maybe I'm not saying very much when you boil all this down, but I'm just trying to find the shooting choice that gives us the best end-game odds. I think Deb is the worst shot here, because there are solid grounds for ruling her out with multiple people, and the wolves might have to concede something to us with her anyway. Brin is very double-edged, it's a roll-of-the-dice approach to get ahead of the game, so it comes down to risk assessment.
Will consider further. Smithy/Sky is probably just paranoia inspired, but it's by no means impossible.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 07:07:06---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Just FYI won't be on the rest of the round, am on a little city break.
I'm happy with my misc vote so I'll leave it there. Good luck.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
I'm happy with my misc vote so I'll leave it there. Good luck.
We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
I'm leaning toward Rove, Misc I have less conviction in but might be ok too. Just trying to work a few things out.
The Brin/Smithy/Deb glob is a powerful tool I think, maybe I've misread one of the Smithy pairings (deb/brin is solid) but this would force one wolf among Sky/Rove/Misc (yes from my point of view). This is a more succinct way of putting what I stated before. Brin could be bussing one of the two (or at least Rove), and with Sky's vote on Brin last round we would have to conclude Brin was involved in a bus one way or the other if she is a wolf. She hasn't actually voted Misc or vice versa which I guess is the possible exception. Sky is tempting as the wildcard, lets get this over with and I think we can suss out the rest either way, but he hasn't really earned a shot as his play has been fairly convincing (with a few questionable moments here or there as everyone will have). So really just making my mind up between those 3 with the lean toward Rove/Misc.
If the vote hits a wolf, Brin drops down most people's boards I'd think and we have an extra round to retrofit things. If we hit a human, the wolves likely have to bite out of the glob I mentioned, and we have something like Brin/Smithy/Misc/Sky/Spid to figure out 2 wolves (with I still think one wolf almost certainly between Sky/Misc). This is just an example of the way things could go.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 07:30:38---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The Brin/Smithy/Deb glob is a powerful tool I think, maybe I've misread one of the Smithy pairings (deb/brin is solid) but this would force one wolf among Sky/Rove/Misc (yes from my point of view). This is a more succinct way of putting what I stated before. Brin could be bussing one of the two (or at least Rove), and with Sky's vote on Brin last round we would have to conclude Brin was involved in a bus one way or the other if she is a wolf. She hasn't actually voted Misc or vice versa which I guess is the possible exception. Sky is tempting as the wildcard, lets get this over with and I think we can suss out the rest either way, but he hasn't really earned a shot as his play has been fairly convincing (with a few questionable moments here or there as everyone will have). So really just making my mind up between those 3 with the lean toward Rove/Misc.
If the vote hits a wolf, Brin drops down most people's boards I'd think and we have an extra round to retrofit things. If we hit a human, the wolves likely have to bite out of the glob I mentioned, and we have something like Brin/Smithy/Misc/Sky/Spid to figure out 2 wolves (with I still think one wolf almost certainly between Sky/Misc). This is just an example of the way things could go.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 07:30:38---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
For an example of typical Rove wolf commentary, I should have highlighted whatever this means....
The_Smithy wrote:
if spid was a wolf and the two choices human it wouldn't really matter what, if anything, he did.
In this scenario bRIN is more likely to vote a human on 7 and 5 than Jem
which just comes off as pseudo-analysis to me. Maybe it can be clarified (well I'm sure it will be) but how genuine the added clarity will be is questionable.
I guess I see what he might be trying to say, but it feels pretty loose (and he throws in a lot of underlying assumptions to make the argument work (both Brin and Misc are unlikely to be my partners just so that his whole approach jives). Smithy will you be on, I think I intend to vote Rove but I'd like someone to at least some other voice to mull over our current situation and if you have something I'm not seeing/thinking of before I move forward with anything.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 07:45:01---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Smithy wrote:
if spid was a wolf and the two choices human it wouldn't really matter what, if anything, he did.
In this scenario bRIN is more likely to vote a human on 7 and 5 than Jem
which just comes off as pseudo-analysis to me. Maybe it can be clarified (well I'm sure it will be) but how genuine the added clarity will be is questionable.
I guess I see what he might be trying to say, but it feels pretty loose (and he throws in a lot of underlying assumptions to make the argument work (both Brin and Misc are unlikely to be my partners just so that his whole approach jives). Smithy will you be on, I think I intend to vote Rove but I'd like someone to at least some other voice to mull over our current situation and if you have something I'm not seeing/thinking of before I move forward with anything.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 07:45:01---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Ok there's too much that happened for me to comment on everything but here are my brief thoughts:
Brin's post wasn't really a defense as much as I was hoping. She seems kind of unnecessarily fixated on me/Rove and her vote feels arbitrary. I'm just missing seeing the confident tone she's had the last few games. Of course I sussed jem and celt for this same reason and they flipped human so I'm not feeling like leaping there again. She would make sense with the 1part-over-jem vote so that's a point there.
I think Rove sounds sincere... his points have been pretty valid and less chaotic than I'd expect if he were wolf.
Sky, I'm sorry if he's explained this (like I said I can't go back through all this right now), but I don't remember his reasoning for why he suspects me. I'm assuming it's sort of a POE situation but if it's any positive reason I'd like it explicitly said so I can rebut if need be.
I think Smithy would have been the better eat last round if the wolves were watching because he was low suspicion on everyone's lists. So I feel like that would indicate someone who's either not watching as closely or who wanted to get an easy eat on celt who hadn't offered as much as others up to that point and therefore left less to analyze.
Or Smithy is a wolf. He has seemed a bit more diplomatic. Sky has seemed more sure but kind of like he's making these long posts of out loud thinking but ends up coming back to saying the same thing.
I disagree with Spider's thought that shooting a deb partner would give us info on deb. If deb pairs well with a lot of people, then I feel like it would make more sense to get the deb info by shooting Deb and then going from there, since she's the most likely suspect.
Not sure debs the highest on my list though; her level of activity is about the same wolf vs human, but she usually sounds more sure as human which is what I'm reading here. Not exactly certain where her brin vote is coming from but I vaguely remember her saying something about brins tone feels off or something.
Anyway:
I'd be willing to vote - brin, sky, deb (in no particular order)
Wild cards - Smithy
Pretty sure human - Rove, Spider (certainly BOTH aren't wolves)
Edited to fix some phone errors and added a bit I realized I omitted.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 08:06:38---
Brin's post wasn't really a defense as much as I was hoping. She seems kind of unnecessarily fixated on me/Rove and her vote feels arbitrary. I'm just missing seeing the confident tone she's had the last few games. Of course I sussed jem and celt for this same reason and they flipped human so I'm not feeling like leaping there again. She would make sense with the 1part-over-jem vote so that's a point there.
I think Rove sounds sincere... his points have been pretty valid and less chaotic than I'd expect if he were wolf.
Sky, I'm sorry if he's explained this (like I said I can't go back through all this right now), but I don't remember his reasoning for why he suspects me. I'm assuming it's sort of a POE situation but if it's any positive reason I'd like it explicitly said so I can rebut if need be.
I think Smithy would have been the better eat last round if the wolves were watching because he was low suspicion on everyone's lists. So I feel like that would indicate someone who's either not watching as closely or who wanted to get an easy eat on celt who hadn't offered as much as others up to that point and therefore left less to analyze.
Or Smithy is a wolf. He has seemed a bit more diplomatic. Sky has seemed more sure but kind of like he's making these long posts of out loud thinking but ends up coming back to saying the same thing.
I disagree with Spider's thought that shooting a deb partner would give us info on deb. If deb pairs well with a lot of people, then I feel like it would make more sense to get the deb info by shooting Deb and then going from there, since she's the most likely suspect.
Not sure debs the highest on my list though; her level of activity is about the same wolf vs human, but she usually sounds more sure as human which is what I'm reading here. Not exactly certain where her brin vote is coming from but I vaguely remember her saying something about brins tone feels off or something.
Anyway:
I'd be willing to vote - brin, sky, deb (in no particular order)
Wild cards - Smithy
Pretty sure human - Rove, Spider (certainly BOTH aren't wolves)
Edited to fix some phone errors and added a bit I realized I omitted.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 08:06:38---
I said "brief" thoughts but I guess I started thinking more as I was typing.
I disagree with Spider's thought that shooting a deb partner would give us info on deb. If deb pairs well with a lot of people, then I feel like it would make more sense to get the deb info by shooting Deb and then going from there, since she's the most likely suspect.
I advocated not shooting a Deb partner, or Deb herself, specifically because we retain exclusions with a shrinking group. The wolves will either eat one of Brin/Smithy/Deb or allow us to retain maximum exlcusions. Not sure where you I suggested we shoot a Deb partner, but whatever.
Rove has not felt all that sincere throughout the game to me, a lot of people are saying that (at least Sky and Misc have off the top), but I've read the game several times, although not with a fine tooth comb. He has some moments that come off natural, but most decent wolves can do that to some extent. I'm just not seeing it as pronounced as others are.
Brin's response wasn't what I was hoping for, but it wasn't opposed to it per se either, so I gained nothing really from her last post.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
Here's where I got this interpretation. I thought you were saying to shoot a potential deb partner to get info on deb. I just read it wrong.
But I still think if brin/deb is a solid pairing, why arent we focusing on one of them?
If we try to play by calculus, both Brin/Deb should be safeguarded (to keep the most rock solid pair exclusion in play, or force the wolves to concede an eating on one of them) we know at least one wolf is nearly certainly among Sky-Smithy-Rove-Misc (me)...
...I think Deb is the worst shot here, because there are solid grounds for ruling her out with multiple people, and the wolves might have to concede something to us with her anyway.
...I think Deb is the worst shot here, because there are solid grounds for ruling her out with multiple people, and the wolves might have to concede something to us with her anyway.
Here's where I got this interpretation. I thought you were saying to shoot a potential deb partner to get info on deb. I just read it wrong.
But I still think if brin/deb is a solid pairing, why arent we focusing on one of them?
I think its the opposite, they are the only solid non pair with Smithy/Deb Smithy/Brin being a step down, but reasonable exlcusions.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
Can you explain how it's worse than having both the Oracle and you coming after us?
Fake The Disco!
Rove_Tarts wrote:
You need mw to explain why eating someone being dubbed The Oracle after (in the context given correctly) naming 2 suspects is foolhardy?
Will be inthe office soon
The_Spider wrote:
Why?
Eating Brin would be suicidal
Why?
You need mw to explain why eating someone being dubbed The Oracle after (in the context given correctly) naming 2 suspects is foolhardy?
Will be inthe office soon
Can you explain how it's worse than having both the Oracle and you coming after us?
Fake The Disco!
Because it's like eating the a possible seer claim, being eaten grants authority to what otherwise can be disputed or argued as wolf commentary. Its worse because it's Brin/Spid vs Rove/Misc or Brin/Spid/Smithy/Sky/Deb/Celt vs Rove/Misc
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Am I actually chaotic as a wolf cause I've seen a few people note it and I don't remember playing like that
Fake The Disco!
Fake The Disco!
The_Spider wrote:
But didn't you say:
The_Spider wrote:
so why couldn't that be argued if bRIN was eaten and we were wolves?
Fake The Disco!
Because it's like eating the a possible seer claim, being eaten grants authority to what otherwise can be disputed or argued as wolf commentary. Its worse because it's Brin/Spid vs Rove/Misc or Brin/Spid/Smithy/Sky/Deb/Celt vs Rove/Misc
But didn't you say:
The_Spider wrote:
As I noted earlier in my response to Rove, if Rove/Misc are humans, we have to consider that the wolves had the option of eating Brin last night. Especially given she was/is in danger of being shot, this would amplify concerns over Rove/Misc. This is also boosted by the possibility of a dead Oracle sending Rove Misc Wolves from the grave. So I'm saying if all of Brin/Rove/Misc are human, the wolves seemed to have missed an opening.
so why couldn't that be argued if bRIN was eaten and we were wolves?
Fake The Disco!
My gut is still telling me brin (and unless explained further I'm not particularly put off this idea by the eatings) but my head agrees with spid's logic, and rove's tone does sound "off". My human read on spid has returned so I'm trusting him along with the quick first night.
The_Smithy wrote:
It's been awhile since I've been suspected when I'm innocent, so new scenario new tone
Fake The Disco!
rove's tone does sound "off".
It's been awhile since I've been suspected when I'm innocent, so new scenario new tone
Fake The Disco!
Rove, when you eat someone (quite fairly, although with tongue in cheek) being referred to as the Oracle for a string of recent successes, eating that person when they call X and Y out is going to bring X and Y under a ton of scrutiny. So I am arguing if you are both wolves, eating Brin would have brought you under fire. If you are both human, AND Brin is human (eatable), eating her would bring X and Y under the same scrutiny, but it would be a trap, so non Rove/Misc wolves had motivation to eat Brin, if possible, Rove/Misc did NOT.
Misc is sounding increasingly human to me in some ways, not sure in others, which is a little concerning toward my Brin foundation, but I can't hold Brin to perfection. Rove seems like he wants to nitpick with me and my comments instead of offer his own advice/outlook on how to proceed. Getting toward decision time.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Misc is sounding increasingly human to me in some ways, not sure in others, which is a little concerning toward my Brin foundation, but I can't hold Brin to perfection. Rove seems like he wants to nitpick with me and my comments instead of offer his own advice/outlook on how to proceed. Getting toward decision time.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
Im not arguing it wouldn't be bad, I'm arguing it wouldn't be worse
Would it be stupid to vote myself so the wolves can't vote me in must-lynch
Fake The Disco!
Rove, when you eat someone (quite fairly, although with tongue in cheek) being referred to as the Oracle for a string of recent successes, eating that person when they call X and Y out is going to bring X and Y under a ton of scrutiny. So I am arguing if you are both wolves, eating Brin would have brought you under fire.
Im not arguing it wouldn't be bad, I'm arguing it wouldn't be worse
Would it be stupid to vote myself so the wolves can't vote me in must-lynch
Fake The Disco!
Smithy, if you are on, what is your overall synopsis on Sky?
The reason its hard to pivot to Brin is because votes for Brin have come from (Smithy,Deb,Sky)
votes from Brin have gone to Rove.
So Misc is (my) only ? although I realize Brin has listed Misc as one of her wolf reads, but not actually voted her.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 10:17:49---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The reason its hard to pivot to Brin is because votes for Brin have come from (Smithy,Deb,Sky)
votes from Brin have gone to Rove.
So Misc is (my) only ? although I realize Brin has listed Misc as one of her wolf reads, but not actually voted her.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 10:17:49---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Not to sound like too much of a cop-out but somewhere around neutral, maybe a slight human lean as his posts do sound quite natural. I've been thinking about whether his post last round agreeing that celt's defence is solid, coupled with the subsequent eating, would be a brazen play for the wolves if he were one (whether it was sky or a partner that decided the eating) but I'm not sure that holds much water.
If I die can yall not turn it into Misc vs bRIN next round
Fake The Disco!
Fake The Disco!
It tough to validate that comment when you have spent the last dozen posts just kind of aimlessly responding to me (somewhat in circles) and asking about our impressions of your own playstyle. You mentioned some suspicions early, but have done very little to try to persuade anyone of them, or if your outlook has changed. You could spend some energy summarizing or reiterate what you think the correct direction we should go is.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
Well you see from an objective standpoint, I think the correct direction is a Rove shot
Fake The Disco!
You could spend some energy summarizing or reiterate what you think the correct direction we should go is.
Well you see from an objective standpoint, I think the correct direction is a Rove shot
Fake The Disco!
I think the only 2 people I can turn the vote onto is Misc and bRIN who I both human read atm
If a human that isn't me gets shot here it's basically game over from my POV
Fake The Disco!
If a human that isn't me gets shot here it's basically game over from my POV
Fake The Disco!
I don't feel like I've got a good grip of this particular game so i may be being lead around a little easily but I'll put in a vote for rove, I may be around again this round but I may disappear/forget so don't want to go voteless. Still have my reservations but I don't have much conviction.
Feels weird that I'm now voting WITH brin but I don't know, at least if it's wrong we learn something.
bRIN voted for Rove_Tarts
debc1 voted for bRIN
Skybet voted for Misc
The_Smithy voted for Rove_Tarts
Totals
Rove_Tarts : 2
Non-voters/Inactives: Misc, Rove_Tarts, The_Spider
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 10:45:13---
Feels weird that I'm now voting WITH brin but I don't know, at least if it's wrong we learn something.
bRIN voted for Rove_Tarts
debc1 voted for bRIN
Skybet voted for Misc
The_Smithy voted for Rove_Tarts
Totals
Rove_Tarts : 2
Non-voters/Inactives: Misc, Rove_Tarts, The_Spider
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 10:45:13---
We have Smithy, Sky, brin, me, Rove, deb, Spider
I honestly think Rove is human. I've said why but the "if Im the sticking point I'll be the sacrifice" is something I've done as a human but would be too much of a risk as a wolf. The only exception would be if Rove thought his partner was untouchable, but I think everyone has had the searchlight on them at least once the last two rounds so no one is safe.
Brin I think is a pivotal option. If we shot brin, who would that give us info on, and in what way? I'd say if she's wolf I don't see brin/spid or brin/Rove (Spider bc it would be too dangerous to just agree with his suspicions of me/Rove like she did two rounds ago and has stuck with, and Rove bc shes actually voted rove). But if she flips human that puts the sus on me and Rove again but also puts us in must lynch.
I dont think deb would be so fixed on one person as a wolf. I say shes human.
Spider I think is human or is playing a pretty different wolf game with diplomatic tendencies and super-short nights. I could see him changing one but not the other. Def not Rove/Spid or Brin/Spid
Sky and Smithy... if I had to pick a wolf between the two, I'd probably say Sky actually. Though his conviction about me seems pretty human, Ve just felt some of his points have been vague and uncertain, pointing the finger around, but then he comes out with a very certain "It must be misc" as a conclusion. But it's a close 50/50 between the two so I could change.
As far as others suspicions, it seems (without actually reading thru bc really tough on phone) that the majority feels strongly me/Rove/brin, with deb as a dark horse, Spider cleared, and Smithy/Sky being the tossup
I honestly think Rove is human. I've said why but the "if Im the sticking point I'll be the sacrifice" is something I've done as a human but would be too much of a risk as a wolf. The only exception would be if Rove thought his partner was untouchable, but I think everyone has had the searchlight on them at least once the last two rounds so no one is safe.
Brin I think is a pivotal option. If we shot brin, who would that give us info on, and in what way? I'd say if she's wolf I don't see brin/spid or brin/Rove (Spider bc it would be too dangerous to just agree with his suspicions of me/Rove like she did two rounds ago and has stuck with, and Rove bc shes actually voted rove). But if she flips human that puts the sus on me and Rove again but also puts us in must lynch.
I dont think deb would be so fixed on one person as a wolf. I say shes human.
Spider I think is human or is playing a pretty different wolf game with diplomatic tendencies and super-short nights. I could see him changing one but not the other. Def not Rove/Spid or Brin/Spid
Sky and Smithy... if I had to pick a wolf between the two, I'd probably say Sky actually. Though his conviction about me seems pretty human, Ve just felt some of his points have been vague and uncertain, pointing the finger around, but then he comes out with a very certain "It must be misc" as a conclusion. But it's a close 50/50 between the two so I could change.
As far as others suspicions, it seems (without actually reading thru bc really tough on phone) that the majority feels strongly me/Rove/brin, with deb as a dark horse, Spider cleared, and Smithy/Sky being the tossup
I need a few minutes to think and kids are hungry. Setting a reminder to
Come back and vote in 15
Come back and vote in 15
I think y'all are putting undue pressure on brin, yes when she is "on" she is on, but that is hard to keep up, especially when she (possibly) is a wolf. It is like the never lie vein, it's great when human then it gets you when your not.
That being said I am not looking for big pronouncements but something more than a sentence. She sounds not like her. I believe she said she was keeping an eye on -misc and rove-? After it was already mentioned by someone else. Coincidence or convenience?
This space is intentionally left blank.
That being said I am not looking for big pronouncements but something more than a sentence. She sounds not like her. I believe she said she was keeping an eye on -misc and rove-? After it was already mentioned by someone else. Coincidence or convenience?
This space is intentionally left blank.
Very interesting...several demurs over the last bit of time, they always influence me, maybe more than they should, but they do, must decide very soon.
Rove's falling on the sword do strike me as human. Any time I've considered it as being a necessary move it's always as a human (never as a wolf). That obviously doesn't overlook the possibility it's just false theatrics, but I'm not sure that's Rove's likely game here as a wolf.
I agree with Misc's comments on Deb, I think Deb is probably human and Brin/Deb can be ruled out.
Brin/Sky is a possibility (maybe).
will vote from phone once home (half day ) not sure I will add anything further before end of round.
Smithy - not on the table
Deb - not on the table
Brin - tempting to just find out once and for all, but unlikely I vote there for previously listed tactical reasons
Rove - not sure the implications of a Rove/Human shot, but it certainly should be interesting
Misc - seems like a reasonable hedge here, but is sounding human enough to give a pass on
Sky - I don't know....becoming an interesting option, unfair maybe, but interesting.
Just to let you know where I'm landing before my ultimate decision (unless things are decided without me).
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 10:53:53---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Rove's falling on the sword do strike me as human. Any time I've considered it as being a necessary move it's always as a human (never as a wolf). That obviously doesn't overlook the possibility it's just false theatrics, but I'm not sure that's Rove's likely game here as a wolf.
I agree with Misc's comments on Deb, I think Deb is probably human and Brin/Deb can be ruled out.
Brin/Sky is a possibility (maybe).
will vote from phone once home (half day ) not sure I will add anything further before end of round.
Smithy - not on the table
Deb - not on the table
Brin - tempting to just find out once and for all, but unlikely I vote there for previously listed tactical reasons
Rove - not sure the implications of a Rove/Human shot, but it certainly should be interesting
Misc - seems like a reasonable hedge here, but is sounding human enough to give a pass on
Sky - I don't know....becoming an interesting option, unfair maybe, but interesting.
Just to let you know where I'm landing before my ultimate decision (unless things are decided without me).
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 10:53:53---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Quick thoughts on others
Smithy- I just don't think it is him because of timing it's a little funny he didn't stick to his guns
Sky-could be he has changed course a lot
Misc- started off questionable but has sounded more like herself
Rove- he has made sense to me but that doesn't exclude him per se but nothing to make me vote him
Dan- I have seen dan defend a fellow wolf before, him and missy.
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Smithy- I just don't think it is him because of timing it's a little funny he didn't stick to his guns
Sky-could be he has changed course a lot
Misc- started off questionable but has sounded more like herself
Rove- he has made sense to me but that doesn't exclude him per se but nothing to make me vote him
Dan- I have seen dan defend a fellow wolf before, him and missy.
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Ok I am going to vote brin, two reasons: (1) I really don't think it's Rove, thus I think a Rove vote is going to send us to must lynch, and I'm not going to vote myself to tie obviously, and (2) At the beginning of this round, I felt pretty ok with a brin shot. This has changed over the course of the round hearing eveyone's objections, but I think I should stick with my first thoughts.
I'd really want to vote Sky just to see but it's such a shot in the dark and I don't like the odds.
Going to tie things up with a brin vote. Will check back.
I'd really want to vote Sky just to see but it's such a shot in the dark and I don't like the odds.
Going to tie things up with a brin vote. Will check back.
I'm voting Sky
Fake The Disco!
Fake The Disco!
Geez this is a pretty cool scenario all things considered. 50 50 on sky/misc with rove close
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Day
It takes 4 votes to select someone to be shot with the silver bullet.
bRIN voted for Rove_Tarts
debc1 voted for bRIN
Misc voted for bRIN
Rove_Tarts voted for Skybet
Skybet voted for Misc
The_Smithy voted for Rove_Tarts
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
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It takes 4 votes to select someone to be shot with the silver bullet.
bRIN voted for Rove_Tarts
debc1 voted for bRIN
Misc voted for bRIN
Rove_Tarts voted for Skybet
Skybet voted for Misc
The_Smithy voted for Rove_Tarts
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
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Dan are you going to vote?
The suspense is killing me
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The suspense is killing me
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If anyone Really feels really strongly against brin, I could do Sky as a wild card. It would be safer now rather than next round. Otherwise I plan to stay.
I think the quick nights, especially with regard to clearing inactives are strongly indicative of rove, I was unable to research it (no applicable games in my last 10 and I said heck with it)
Brin running a marginal effort fly by concerns me, but on the opposite end, she has earned some blind faith.
Misc/rove both are doing a good job, or at least rove played a desperate sword falling card when needed to stay above water with me.
Smithy still sounds human and his fluctuations sound genuine and well paced.
Deb I think is too confident and focused to be a wolf, or so I think, she's also a bad tactical shot.
Sky is a hail Mary type of play, but poe is getting me close
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Brin running a marginal effort fly by concerns me, but on the opposite end, she has earned some blind faith.
Misc/rove both are doing a good job, or at least rove played a desperate sword falling card when needed to stay above water with me.
Smithy still sounds human and his fluctuations sound genuine and well paced.
Deb I think is too confident and focused to be a wolf, or so I think, she's also a bad tactical shot.
Sky is a hail Mary type of play, but poe is getting me close
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I don't feel as strongly on sky as I do brin
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debc1 wrote:
I would agree. Although it will be panic mode next round if she's actually human.
I think I'll stay, see who gets eaten.
I don't feel as strongly on sky as I do brin
I would agree. Although it will be panic mode next round if she's actually human.
I think I'll stay, see who gets eaten.
Everyone now has voted Brin or vice versa (except me) bussing is certainly in play, but it is enough to give me pause
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The quick nights has to have another wolf going along with it
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Nvm sky calling the wolves gracious for quick nights is triggered my human tell. Enough to move me to think it's a daring plunge at this stage.....rove maybe....
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Reguardless a very interesting game
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debc1 wrote:
Yes, but that doesn't change the fact, it even enhances the argument. I am only making it to point out that it has been running in the background of of rove misgivings
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The quick nights has to have another wolf going along with it
Yes, but that doesn't change the fact, it even enhances the argument. I am only making it to point out that it has been running in the background of of rove misgivings
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The Oracle gets one chance to get it right....
A human rove won't lock me in on Brin next round, but she deserves our faith just one time.
Not enthusiastic about it, but at least keeps 'the glob' intact
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
A human rove won't lock me in on Brin next round, but she deserves our faith just one time.
Not enthusiastic about it, but at least keeps 'the glob' intact
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
I usually stall out the nights, not time them out completely, but I do stall, I think you can ask Cone from our talk box game
Fake The Disco!
I think the quick nights, especially with regard to clearing inactives are strongly indicative of rove, I was unable to research it (no applicable games in my last 10 and I said heck with it)
I usually stall out the nights, not time them out completely, but I do stall, I think you can ask Cone from our talk box game
Fake The Disco!
Rove if it is you I am going to throttle you!!
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Spid is deciding the shot again
Fake The Disco!
Fake The Disco!
Rove was one of the quiet ones at school, not well-known or popular, a good student but not a teacher's pet. He just existed. This wasn't enough. So Rove vowed to make next year a memorable one. He wanted to make a mark on the school.
But the florescent yellow spray paint was going a bit too far. He would spend most of his summer scrubbing and repainting the walls that, for a short time, had read, "Rovian Rulez!"
Sadly, that was the best he had come up with, after all, he was only human.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 16:18:46---
It's a disease, not a punch line
But the florescent yellow spray paint was going a bit too far. He would spend most of his summer scrubbing and repainting the walls that, for a short time, had read, "Rovian Rulez!"
Sadly, that was the best he had come up with, after all, he was only human.
---This message was edited on 2022-06-06 16:18:46---
It's a disease, not a punch line
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