Mixed up Addresses
Probability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.
Duke Maverick worked for a packaging company. One day, Duke received four separate orders and accidentally mixed up the addresses, so he applied the address labels at random. What is the probability that exactly three packages were correctly labelled?
Answer
The probability is zero. If three packages are correctly labelled, so is the fourth.
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Comments
rohddawg
Mar 30, 2002
 umm... ok... but then what is the probability of that... since u were asking for one? 
madade
Mar 31, 2002
 it is not impossible, you answer that in your answer.
For 3 to be correct, obviously all four need to be correct, and what is the possablity of that. so therefore it is not Zero, because no matter how slight the chance of getting all four correct (to allow the three in question to be correct) it is not Zero as stated. blaze strikes again (and misses) 
tellUNigent
Apr 01, 2002
 You are too funny madade. 
cathalmccabe
Apr 03, 2002
 1/24 I think, but I'm not sure 
cathalmccabe
Apr 03, 2002
 By the way, if you are trying to TRICK people, thats clever, trick them by putting it in Probability rather than TRICK! 
chamber44
May 18, 2002
 Cath, he DID put it in probability. And about your dogs puzzle...when did they become bears? (look at one of your comments on that one.) 
Andy1608
May 21, 2002
 Blaze is right Madade, the question asks what's the probability of EXACTLY 3 being correctly labelled. If all 4 are, that's not exactly 3 is it? 
madman44
Jun 24, 2002
 Exactly 3 are there labeled correctly and so is the fourth for that matter. Mad Ade is correct. 
cathalmccabe
Jul 29, 2002
 I was just looking at this again and see my guess of 1/24 is wrong.I spent a bit longer thinking about it, is the answer 1/6? If you take the first one and its definitely wrong, you have 1/3 in getting it in the right place. Then the second one only has 1/2 and the other two have to be swaped so they are certainties if you get the first two right? 
snaps
Nov 07, 2002
 I'm with madman, andy and blaze on this. The question asks for the probability of "exactly three" being correct. If three are correct then so is the fourth meaning that there can never be "exactly three" that are correct, there are more than three correct. The wording of this question is important, which seems to have been overlooked by some people. 
jimbo
Mar 14, 2003
 I liked the puzzle Blaze and I speak English so I know what "Exactly 3" means. 
mr_brainiac
Jan 04, 2006
 none, zip, nuttin, zeerow, NADA, as in "nada chance" 
YVAU
Mar 02, 2006
 Good one. It does say "exactly 3", not at least 3. 
brainjuice
Mar 31, 2006
 the probability is not ZERO so your answer is wrong. but i like your puzzle, i really didnt realize that 3 the same then the fourth also must be the same.. good teaser 
dishu
Apr 26, 2006
 the answer is right as it asks for "EXACTLY 3" being correct which is not possible. Because if there are 3 correct,then so is the 4th one making it MORE THAN 3 CORRECT rather than EXACTLY 3 CORRECT 
Dedrik
Aug 29, 2006
 Math Vocab for the win 
xdbtcp
Sep 24, 2010
 Well, if a packaging company hires a guy who is happy to put on labels randomly, there's a pretty good chance that one of the address labels was written incorrectly, so....it is possible that there will be exactly 3 correct. 
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