The Werewolf Game
Game #3440: Werewolf Game
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This game finished in 8 rounds.
RFM
Thanks jem
All key players are still in!
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 17:21:33---
I had a signature but then I forgot it 0.o
Thanks jem
All key players are still in!
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 17:21:33---
I had a signature but then I forgot it 0.o
SPV
The mid-round Hooves eating is becoming a bit trite, but maybe she said something seerish, taking a peak at her comments last round.
Nope...very little, and voted Temflaks. Seems like a really bizarre eating choice on its face.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The mid-round Hooves eating is becoming a bit trite, but maybe she said something seerish, taking a peak at her comments last round.
Nope...very little, and voted Temflaks. Seems like a really bizarre eating choice on its face.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Same thoughts on last rounds eating. I don't think whov particularly targetted anyone last round, apart from Spid which she retracted anyway.
I'm thinking that the eatings are pointing more towards the girls in this group (as in I don't think it fits Spid, Smithy or celt too well). I do agree with celts point about eatings not being that useful when 3 wolves remain, but it's better than nothing.
SPV for alien for now
I had a signature but then I forgot it 0.o
I'm thinking that the eatings are pointing more towards the girls in this group (as in I don't think it fits Spid, Smithy or celt too well). I do agree with celts point about eatings not being that useful when 3 wolves remain, but it's better than nothing.
SPV for alien for now
I had a signature but then I forgot it 0.o
Just collecting my thoughts and analyzing
(list of names so I don't forget, not really setting up a Deb List, at least it's not my intent)
Alien
Bradon
Brin
Celt
Froggy
Jem
Snow
Spiffy
The eatings have seemed haphazard. The Rove eating has been dissected, but to me still likely points to a Frog/Brin. The eating of NC, I'm not sure. If Brin is a wolf it might be a simple seer hunt, but if it's not that, then it's just peculiar, that points to one of the Smithy/Celt type players who want to remove one of the more marginal players. The Hooves eating then zigs another direction as it just seems fairly random and was a hail mary of a seer hunt attempt (based on no comments really defending or incriminating anyone).
A few players have gotten away with basically a post or two (and of little substantive value) so it's hard to do a thorough analysis here.
I guess I'll start where I hammered last round, with Bradon. It seems to me Tem being human furthers my stance that she is human (if Brin is a wolf, she would have no need to bus last round, and if Brin is human, I'm not sure what the point of trying to argue for a Brin shot over a Flaks shot was...maybe it was tactical based on steering away a revenge vote, can check on that) I could wonder why I wasn't eaten, but I think this is a dubious argument when the wolves have a lot of kill choices most nights.
Brin is probably my default vote, but I'm open to almost anyone else, as no one has either sold me on their humanity, or offered much to begin with.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 08:10:19---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
(list of names so I don't forget, not really setting up a Deb List, at least it's not my intent)
Alien
Bradon
Brin
Celt
Froggy
Jem
Snow
Spiffy
The eatings have seemed haphazard. The Rove eating has been dissected, but to me still likely points to a Frog/Brin. The eating of NC, I'm not sure. If Brin is a wolf it might be a simple seer hunt, but if it's not that, then it's just peculiar, that points to one of the Smithy/Celt type players who want to remove one of the more marginal players. The Hooves eating then zigs another direction as it just seems fairly random and was a hail mary of a seer hunt attempt (based on no comments really defending or incriminating anyone).
A few players have gotten away with basically a post or two (and of little substantive value) so it's hard to do a thorough analysis here.
I guess I'll start where I hammered last round, with Bradon. It seems to me Tem being human furthers my stance that she is human (if Brin is a wolf, she would have no need to bus last round, and if Brin is human, I'm not sure what the point of trying to argue for a Brin shot over a Flaks shot was...maybe it was tactical based on steering away a revenge vote, can check on that) I could wonder why I wasn't eaten, but I think this is a dubious argument when the wolves have a lot of kill choices most nights.
Brin is probably my default vote, but I'm open to almost anyone else, as no one has either sold me on their humanity, or offered much to begin with.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 08:10:19---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
SPV, might make a deb list later when I have time.
My wiki trail is now public! :D
My wiki trail is now public! :D
SPV
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
SPV for jeminy. Will come back later and make my deb list.
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
SPV for Bobby. Don't really suspect her at this point, so vote is subject to change.
I'm sorry for not being very involved. My Father n Law passed away a few days ago and the past week or so has been a nightmare. I'll be able to participate in the game, just not very focused. I'll try though.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
I'm sorry for not being very involved. My Father n Law passed away a few days ago and the past week or so has been a nightmare. I'll be able to participate in the game, just not very focused. I'll try though.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Sorry to hear that Snow.
It's curious most people are being so tight lipped, it's round 4 now after all.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
It's curious most people are being so tight lipped, it's round 4 now after all.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
As I've said, I'm here but not in the game. I know I'm not being much help. Saying I'm human doesn't mean much - I've said it before as a wolf and I've said it as a human so, no golden ticket for me. My gut still says Bradon even though I can't say why. I've never really seen her get 'prickly' as a wolf or as a human, so her responses are a bit odd to me.
Keep in mind that my vote was on Tem not Bradon
I appreciate those of you trying to keep me in the game so that I'm distracted from R/L, but if you really feel that I'm behaving wolfy - I won't be offended or angry if I'm shot. I'm not being of much help to you right now either way
My gut says Bradon, Snow, Spider, Froggy Alien [could be because they are the ones specifically voting in my direction or because others find them suspicious in the case of Froggy] I was hoping to sort it out but...
Anyway, my vote goes to Bradon this time
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
Keep in mind that my vote was on Tem not Bradon
I appreciate those of you trying to keep me in the game so that I'm distracted from R/L, but if you really feel that I'm behaving wolfy - I won't be offended or angry if I'm shot. I'm not being of much help to you right now either way
My gut says Bradon, Snow, Spider, Froggy Alien [could be because they are the ones specifically voting in my direction or because others find them suspicious in the case of Froggy] I was hoping to sort it out but...
Anyway, my vote goes to Bradon this time
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
snowmonster wrote:
Right there with you snow. Except it was my father, my uncle, and my cousin. within 7 days. You and your family have my condolences and prayers for strength in this difficult time.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
SPV for Bobby. Don't really suspect her at this point, so vote is subject to change.
I'm sorry for not being very involved. My Father n Law passed away a few days ago and the past week or so has been a nightmare. I'll be able to participate in the game, just not very focused. I'll try though.
I'm sorry for not being very involved. My Father n Law passed away a few days ago and the past week or so has been a nightmare. I'll be able to participate in the game, just not very focused. I'll try though.
Right there with you snow. Except it was my father, my uncle, and my cousin. within 7 days. You and your family have my condolences and prayers for strength in this difficult time.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
My condolences Snow and Brin
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
Sorry to hear that snow, hope you're doing alright.
I also need to apologise for not being hugely active but see round 0 for my pre-role excuses. Also to be honest I'm always a bit at a loss until we have our first hit or at least first round of decisive action, so far it's all been drifting and I'm not very good at reading into that.
Spid was actually giving me slight wolfy vibes until his couple of long posts last round, now he seems like normal human spid without much to work with. However, Hooves did seem to be searching for a reason to suspect spid last round before defecting to the tem vote. It doesn't look hugely seer-y to me (still awaiting confirmation from deb) but either way it would be remiss not to think about the possibility of a wolf clocking her comments on spid as a seer tell. The wolves really should be focusing on the seer at this stage and so either one or more of them thought hooves said something seer-y, literally nobody said anything accurate enough to look seer-y, or one or more wolves are not paying huge attention and voting without much reasoning (consistent with the most recent mod eating).
I also need to apologise for not being hugely active but see round 0 for my pre-role excuses. Also to be honest I'm always a bit at a loss until we have our first hit or at least first round of decisive action, so far it's all been drifting and I'm not very good at reading into that.
Spid was actually giving me slight wolfy vibes until his couple of long posts last round, now he seems like normal human spid without much to work with. However, Hooves did seem to be searching for a reason to suspect spid last round before defecting to the tem vote. It doesn't look hugely seer-y to me (still awaiting confirmation from deb) but either way it would be remiss not to think about the possibility of a wolf clocking her comments on spid as a seer tell. The wolves really should be focusing on the seer at this stage and so either one or more of them thought hooves said something seer-y, literally nobody said anything accurate enough to look seer-y, or one or more wolves are not paying huge attention and voting without much reasoning (consistent with the most recent mod eating).
I'm so sorry for your losses Brin and Snowy. Prayers for you both and your families.
I'm not going to comment on anything else at this time, so I'll just SPV and be back when Deb posts Who's ID.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
I'm not going to comment on anything else at this time, so I'll just SPV and be back when Deb posts Who's ID.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
It takes 5 votes to select someone to be shot with the silver bullet.
AlienChipBrain voted for bRIN
bradon182001 voted for celtichero
celtichero voted for The_Smithy
froggygg voted for jeminy
jeminy voted for AlienChipBrain
snowmonster voted for bradon182001
The_Spider voted for froggygg
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
AlienChipBrain voted for bRIN
bradon182001 voted for celtichero
celtichero voted for The_Smithy
froggygg voted for jeminy
jeminy voted for AlienChipBrain
snowmonster voted for bradon182001
The_Spider voted for froggygg
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
I realize we are all content to just wait on Deb, but this has been a pretty cruddy way to go about Round 4. I suppose I'm forced to a Deb list, to at least get something going. If I could, I would probably start a majority on Froggy to get something moving vote wise (but I am voting her now), let's see what my Deb list says and go from there.
Alien Don't see as a very likely Rove eater. I bring up the Rove eating, because there is almost nothing else to go off of so far. Just too much punting (for the roster in general not Alien herself). She hasn't done anything that jumps out as wolfy though, so no real reason for me to suspect her right now.
Brin Her posts feel a little more human this round, in more of a meta-way (allusions to a golden card she doesn't have....although it comes off as more of an attempt to play a 'golden card' anyway). Wolves will play the 'plea' defense as sort of a last resort, or in an emergency, but I think playing it up front, under minor/moderate pressure is a little odd. I'm not sliding Brin to human at this point, but I'm no further to thinking she is a wolf.
Bradon It will be really interesting and bizarre if Bradon is a wolf. I just won't understand what her tactics have been all game if she is. I.e. why was she so irascible. I've outlined by thoughts on why I think Bradon is human, I'm open to things breaking differently, but I just don't see it right now.
Celt Keeping a close eye on. I don't feel like going nuts and bolts on my thoughts on every Celt post, but there is just something a little incongruent about his game. Nothing in and of itself has been suspect (or overly so) it just feels like there is something piecemeal about his game.
Jem Standard Jem game, no read, almost no 'vibe or tone' to speak of other than pure neutrality. Could see myself rolling the dice on him just on an (illogical) but satisfying 'he's due' type approach.
Frog Was one of my original considerations for the Rove eating. I demurred on that for a little while just to not feel like I was being a little oppressive toward froggy. That being said, by Round 4, any 'sympathy' angle is well exhausted. She has posted little more than SPVs, so there is nothing to mitigate any suspicion (based on the Rove eating).
Smith I don't know, I remain mostly neutral. Just no strong feelings on him being human, but nothing too wolfish either.
Snow Have same thoughts as Froggy although her lack of participation has a clear explanation, and I don't think she would have eaten Rove. Neutral, not much else to say or do right now on Snow
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 13:33:45---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Alien Don't see as a very likely Rove eater. I bring up the Rove eating, because there is almost nothing else to go off of so far. Just too much punting (for the roster in general not Alien herself). She hasn't done anything that jumps out as wolfy though, so no real reason for me to suspect her right now.
Brin Her posts feel a little more human this round, in more of a meta-way (allusions to a golden card she doesn't have....although it comes off as more of an attempt to play a 'golden card' anyway). Wolves will play the 'plea' defense as sort of a last resort, or in an emergency, but I think playing it up front, under minor/moderate pressure is a little odd. I'm not sliding Brin to human at this point, but I'm no further to thinking she is a wolf.
Bradon It will be really interesting and bizarre if Bradon is a wolf. I just won't understand what her tactics have been all game if she is. I.e. why was she so irascible. I've outlined by thoughts on why I think Bradon is human, I'm open to things breaking differently, but I just don't see it right now.
Celt Keeping a close eye on. I don't feel like going nuts and bolts on my thoughts on every Celt post, but there is just something a little incongruent about his game. Nothing in and of itself has been suspect (or overly so) it just feels like there is something piecemeal about his game.
Jem Standard Jem game, no read, almost no 'vibe or tone' to speak of other than pure neutrality. Could see myself rolling the dice on him just on an (illogical) but satisfying 'he's due' type approach.
Frog Was one of my original considerations for the Rove eating. I demurred on that for a little while just to not feel like I was being a little oppressive toward froggy. That being said, by Round 4, any 'sympathy' angle is well exhausted. She has posted little more than SPVs, so there is nothing to mitigate any suspicion (based on the Rove eating).
Smith I don't know, I remain mostly neutral. Just no strong feelings on him being human, but nothing too wolfish either.
Snow Have same thoughts as Froggy although her lack of participation has a clear explanation, and I don't think she would have eaten Rove. Neutral, not much else to say or do right now on Snow
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 13:33:45---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Day
It takes 5 votes to select someone to be shot with the silver bullet.
AlienChipBrain voted for bRIN
bradon182001 voted for celtichero
bRIN voted for bradon182001
celtichero voted for The_Smithy
froggygg voted for jeminy
jeminy voted for AlienChipBrain
snowmonster voted for bradon182001
The_Spider voted for froggygg
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
It takes 5 votes to select someone to be shot with the silver bullet.
AlienChipBrain voted for bRIN
bradon182001 voted for celtichero
bRIN voted for bradon182001
celtichero voted for The_Smithy
froggygg voted for jeminy
jeminy voted for AlienChipBrain
snowmonster voted for bradon182001
The_Spider voted for froggygg
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
Mildly interesting that Brin voted sometime between those two voting lists without another post.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
My vote for Bobby was a simple SPV. I really don't suspect her and don't feel comfortable leaving her in a majority. So, I will change my vote to Spider, someone else I really don't suspect, but has no vote.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Snow why not vote for somebody you do suspect then?
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
Is that what you're doing?
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Bobbi - It's been discussed (mostly by Spid) why Bobbi is likely human, and I think I agree. Her post about switching to Sky in R2 sounds human (if she were wolfy I'd expect her to only post the first sentence rather than all three) as well in general, so leaning human.
Brin - In rereading R2 I noticed Brin's first post has a lot of "qualifier" type words - "SPV...for now", "I really have no idea", "really doesn't raise any immediate flags at least not yet", "Voted spider only because...". She didn't immediately SPV in R3 (more something to note than a reason she is/isn't wolfy). She mentioned that we should reconsider Bobbi. If Bobbi flips human this might implicate Brin? If Brin is wolfy, she'd be the first alphabetically and therefore have a bit more sway in the eatings, which could explain the eatings if nothing else does. Might be wolfy is snow is not. Leaning wolfy.
Celt - Celt's comment about Sky's inactivity R1 just doesn't sound right to me. I know he was joking around in his other R1 posts, but the post I'm referring to (starts with "low energy Sky") doesn't feel quite normal, either for serious or joking Celt. Leaning slightly wolfy.
Froggy - I have trouble seeing the difference between human and wolfy froggy, so I'm neutral or maybe a little wolfy due to the Rove eating.
Jeminy - Jeminy hasn't done anything that's jumped out at me. A deb list would be nice, but overall gut is leaning human.
Snow - Said she wouldn't eat Rove R1. Again, this has been discussed too and I believe that she would very likely not have voted to eat Rove in R1, but because there are three wolves this does not really sway me in either direction. Somewhat in the same boat with Brin (i.e. death in the family), which means both are paying less attention to the game and could also be part of the reason behind the eatings. Neutral, might be wolfy if Brin is not.
Smithy - Ditto jeminy, basically. Haven't noticed anything off with him, deb list would also be nice, gut is leaning human.
Spider - Joked around with Celt R1. Something in his various R2 posts seem just a little off somehow, like the in his first R2 post. Overall it feels like he's used a few more emojis than normal. If he flips wolf I don't think his comments about froggy would sway me either way on her. Leaning wolfy.
Whov was the only one (iirc) who mentioned Spid and/or celt as potential Rove eaters. While Spid had a whole post of "why was Rove eaten", Celt only suggested the froggy/snow/bobbi group, so especially if Whov flips seer - but even if she doesn't, since she was almost certainly eaten in a seer hunt - this may implicate Celt to some degree.
In conclusion:
Human - Jeminy, Smithy, likely Bobbi
Neutral - Froggy, Snow
Wolfy - Brin, Spid, Celt (and Snow if Brin flips human)
I could see a Froggy/Brin pairing being responsible for the Rove eating (Froggy because she is most likely out of the froggy/bobbi/snow group and Brin because she's got rl on her mind so she likely wouldn't put as much thought into the eatings).
My vote is already on Brin so I will keep as-is.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 16:15:42---
My wiki trail is now public! :D
Brin - In rereading R2 I noticed Brin's first post has a lot of "qualifier" type words - "SPV...for now", "I really have no idea", "really doesn't raise any immediate flags at least not yet", "Voted spider only because...". She didn't immediately SPV in R3 (more something to note than a reason she is/isn't wolfy). She mentioned that we should reconsider Bobbi. If Bobbi flips human this might implicate Brin? If Brin is wolfy, she'd be the first alphabetically and therefore have a bit more sway in the eatings, which could explain the eatings if nothing else does. Might be wolfy is snow is not. Leaning wolfy.
Celt - Celt's comment about Sky's inactivity R1 just doesn't sound right to me. I know he was joking around in his other R1 posts, but the post I'm referring to (starts with "low energy Sky") doesn't feel quite normal, either for serious or joking Celt. Leaning slightly wolfy.
Froggy - I have trouble seeing the difference between human and wolfy froggy, so I'm neutral or maybe a little wolfy due to the Rove eating.
Jeminy - Jeminy hasn't done anything that's jumped out at me. A deb list would be nice, but overall gut is leaning human.
Snow - Said she wouldn't eat Rove R1. Again, this has been discussed too and I believe that she would very likely not have voted to eat Rove in R1, but because there are three wolves this does not really sway me in either direction. Somewhat in the same boat with Brin (i.e. death in the family), which means both are paying less attention to the game and could also be part of the reason behind the eatings. Neutral, might be wolfy if Brin is not.
Smithy - Ditto jeminy, basically. Haven't noticed anything off with him, deb list would also be nice, gut is leaning human.
Spider - Joked around with Celt R1. Something in his various R2 posts seem just a little off somehow, like the in his first R2 post. Overall it feels like he's used a few more emojis than normal. If he flips wolf I don't think his comments about froggy would sway me either way on her. Leaning wolfy.
Whov was the only one (iirc) who mentioned Spid and/or celt as potential Rove eaters. While Spid had a whole post of "why was Rove eaten", Celt only suggested the froggy/snow/bobbi group, so especially if Whov flips seer - but even if she doesn't, since she was almost certainly eaten in a seer hunt - this may implicate Celt to some degree.
In conclusion:
Human - Jeminy, Smithy, likely Bobbi
Neutral - Froggy, Snow
Wolfy - Brin, Spid, Celt (and Snow if Brin flips human)
I could see a Froggy/Brin pairing being responsible for the Rove eating (Froggy because she is most likely out of the froggy/bobbi/snow group and Brin because she's got rl on her mind so she likely wouldn't put as much thought into the eatings).
My vote is already on Brin so I will keep as-is.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 16:15:42---
My wiki trail is now public! :D
I don't know, you seem to be overconfident in your ability to read and measure my use of emojis, and last game's "lol". Regardless, I would suggest caution in viewing Smithy/Jem as human based on their having not commited any 'red flags' to this point. Jem makes a living on being the living embodiment of the color 'beige' and Smithy hasn't had to commit himself too much as of yet.
Celt is moving quickly up my suspect list, and I would probe with a vote here, but want to see the presentation of Hooves' ID does. It's fairly hard to initiate your arguments in Round 4 as a wolf. Reacting to other posts isn't too bad, but picking a direction and arguing for it naturally is really tough, I know because I remember how painstaking it was in one particular game to come up with a plan, phrase, and rephrase it. In lieu of that hard work, I worry that Celt is just throwing in these safe little jab questions. It make him seem present and active, but again, he risks nothing and doesn't have to really work hard at a post.
Other than Celt, I think Brin/Froggy are good choices, as I have already laid out.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Celt is moving quickly up my suspect list, and I would probe with a vote here, but want to see the presentation of Hooves' ID does. It's fairly hard to initiate your arguments in Round 4 as a wolf. Reacting to other posts isn't too bad, but picking a direction and arguing for it naturally is really tough, I know because I remember how painstaking it was in one particular game to come up with a plan, phrase, and rephrase it. In lieu of that hard work, I worry that Celt is just throwing in these safe little jab questions. It make him seem present and active, but again, he risks nothing and doesn't have to really work hard at a post.
Other than Celt, I think Brin/Froggy are good choices, as I have already laid out.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
celtichero wrote:
When I checked to see if Deb had come in, I saw that I hadn't saved my vote.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
Mildly interesting that Brin voted sometime between those two voting lists without another post.
When I checked to see if Deb had come in, I saw that I hadn't saved my vote.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
For the record, (to address a comment from Jem I reread when going over round).
I think we undersell the signifcance of an eating (when 3 wolves are alive), especially Round 1 eatings which generally have additional metagame considerations (who just modded).
To get eaten in round 1 (or any round), you generally have to be someone's first choice. I think we have this idea, that any random mish-mash of votes can get you eaten, but its almost always 1st-x-x (sure it's possible 2nd-2nd or 2nd-2nd+(2nd/3rd) can do it, but in this case specifically, I don't think anyone avoiding Rove as a first choice would put him as a 2nd choice. Basically, it really is significant to rule out players who wouldn't eat Rove under these circumstances. Now, no analysis is of this is going to be 100% accurate, but again, when we evaluate an eating, there is more likely than not someone who selected that person as their #1 choice. It makes sense in all cases to analyze who that could be.
Deb updated the game at 7 PM last round, I'll be out until about then anyway, but whether or not she has posted, I will go for a majority vote on someone.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 16:55:11---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I think we undersell the signifcance of an eating (when 3 wolves are alive), especially Round 1 eatings which generally have additional metagame considerations (who just modded).
To get eaten in round 1 (or any round), you generally have to be someone's first choice. I think we have this idea, that any random mish-mash of votes can get you eaten, but its almost always 1st-x-x (sure it's possible 2nd-2nd or 2nd-2nd+(2nd/3rd) can do it, but in this case specifically, I don't think anyone avoiding Rove as a first choice would put him as a 2nd choice. Basically, it really is significant to rule out players who wouldn't eat Rove under these circumstances. Now, no analysis is of this is going to be 100% accurate, but again, when we evaluate an eating, there is more likely than not someone who selected that person as their #1 choice. It makes sense in all cases to analyze who that could be.
Deb updated the game at 7 PM last round, I'll be out until about then anyway, but whether or not she has posted, I will go for a majority vote on someone.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-28 16:55:11---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
There are a few decent options but none particularly stand out. If I was a braver man I might push spid a bit more for the hooves eating but he is largely sounding human to me. I don't really think it points to celt but he does just sound a bit off anyway. Or I could stick with what I know and go for another froggy vote. I'll do that for now
Sorry for the delay
Update on the first post
I am so sorry snow
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Update on the first post
I am so sorry snow
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I don't see why the Hooves post would convince anyone I (or my partners) were seer hunting her. It feels like a premise not really followed through very far (or a conclusion in search of an argument). Instead of going through a tedious argumentation, I will test the maxim 'Show Don't Tell'
Ask yourself, if Hooves had made that post about YOU (including her Edit) would you feel like you were a divined wolf?
A few more minutes and I'll think up a vote. Caution is always warranted in this kind of game scenario though.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Ask yourself, if Hooves had made that post about YOU (including her Edit) would you feel like you were a divined wolf?
A few more minutes and I'll think up a vote. Caution is always warranted in this kind of game scenario though.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I'm going to give Froggy a little more time to come back with her Deb list as promised. I've got a few things to finish around here, but I'll be back. Meanwhile, keeping my current vote. 8 hours left in round so we do have time.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
I see Smithy joined my Froggy vote. I am going to stay put for a little bit and hope Froggy gets back on soon to offer input.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I'll dump my thoughts on each person here. I won't bother with a human-wolf label because everyone would be neutral or close to it.
Alien - Plausable whov eater. Been pretty diplomatic and pleasant so far. Seems pretty in character for her, but I'd have to actually check her wolf games to see if that changes at all
bradon - Plausable whov and rove eater. I've seen her prickly side this game but I'm taking Spid's judgement that it's more of a human tell
brin - Plausable whov and rove eater. Her post earlier hits me as a bit wolfy. Almost like she was a little guilty or sorry for still being here due solely to circumstances. May have worded that poorly so can elabourate if need be.
celt - Seems less passive and more picky compared to the last couple of games but my celt reading skills suck atm. Feelin more wolf than human, but nothing significant.
froggy - Plausable whov and rove eater. Not getting too much otherwise.
snow - Plausable whov eater. Wouldn't eat rove. Not much else otherwise.
Smithy - Hasn't done too much wrong or right. Judging from last game that's probably bad. I'm happy to keep him around though
Spid - Hard agree with him not eating whov. Her retraction made it pretty clear it was her noticing something and forming a suspicion instead of knowing already. Nothing else has swayed me either way other than that.
Will switch to brin because of a hunch and eatings overlapping.
I could go with anyone, but froggy, bradon and celt would probably be top of those.
I had a signature but then I forgot it 0.o
Alien - Plausable whov eater. Been pretty diplomatic and pleasant so far. Seems pretty in character for her, but I'd have to actually check her wolf games to see if that changes at all
bradon - Plausable whov and rove eater. I've seen her prickly side this game but I'm taking Spid's judgement that it's more of a human tell
brin - Plausable whov and rove eater. Her post earlier hits me as a bit wolfy. Almost like she was a little guilty or sorry for still being here due solely to circumstances. May have worded that poorly so can elabourate if need be.
celt - Seems less passive and more picky compared to the last couple of games but my celt reading skills suck atm. Feelin more wolf than human, but nothing significant.
froggy - Plausable whov and rove eater. Not getting too much otherwise.
snow - Plausable whov eater. Wouldn't eat rove. Not much else otherwise.
Smithy - Hasn't done too much wrong or right. Judging from last game that's probably bad. I'm happy to keep him around though
Spid - Hard agree with him not eating whov. Her retraction made it pretty clear it was her noticing something and forming a suspicion instead of knowing already. Nothing else has swayed me either way other than that.
Will switch to brin because of a hunch and eatings overlapping.
I could go with anyone, but froggy, bradon and celt would probably be top of those.
I had a signature but then I forgot it 0.o
Actually, will follow up on my brin comment now because round timing
It feels like she doesn't want real life stuff to be the reason she stays alive over gameplay. If that were me, I think I'd feel that stronger as a wolf just because it's a 'more important'/less redudant role (admittedly you could feel that way if you were human but ya know, I got to pick a side).
I had a signature but then I forgot it 0.o
It feels like she doesn't want real life stuff to be the reason she stays alive over gameplay. If that were me, I think I'd feel that stronger as a wolf just because it's a 'more important'/less redudant role (admittedly you could feel that way if you were human but ya know, I got to pick a side).
I had a signature but then I forgot it 0.o
Jem - I believe I said earlier, I'm not the one that would eat Rove first round. He's too entertaining. I can't speak to Who, because I have eaten her in early rounds, but it wasn't me this time.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
Sorry for not being more vocal, but we have had an issue with my car. It's in the shop and will not be a cheap fix. Also issues with family as well and hubby and I have been feeling under the weather. Time to go rest some more. Sorry...
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
SMILE and people will wonder what you are up to!
Then I am just gonna keep my vote and call it a night (unlikely I return)
Hopefully the usual advice about what Round 5 potentially is doesn't need to be stated.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Hopefully the usual advice about what Round 5 potentially is doesn't need to be stated.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I feel pretty safe calling Spider a human if only from a game theory aspect. I can expand on this if people ask, but it comes from two assumptions I don't believe are huge leaps of logic.
I still think a Rove r1 eating has a certain type and that type is most specifically Bobbi/Frog/Snow with Brin on the peripherals of that.
Also Alien: My "low energy Sky" comment was a reference to the legendary Jeb Bush
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
I still think a Rove r1 eating has a certain type and that type is most specifically Bobbi/Frog/Snow with Brin on the peripherals of that.
Also Alien: My "low energy Sky" comment was a reference to the legendary Jeb Bush
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
bRIN wrote:
I've just spent the last 1/2 hour looking for a game that Brin made a similiar comment but I couldn't find it. And I honestly don't remember if she was wolf or human, so it was a waste of time. I was hoping to be able to decide if I should vote for her this round or not, so I guess I'll just keep my current vote and keep looking.
I really have no suspicions other than that possibility. It appears that Froggy isn't going to come back tonight and she is tied with Brin with votes, so I'll leave things as they are.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
Saying I'm human doesn't mean much - I've said it before as a wolf and I've said it as a human so, no golden ticket for me.
I've just spent the last 1/2 hour looking for a game that Brin made a similiar comment but I couldn't find it. And I honestly don't remember if she was wolf or human, so it was a waste of time. I was hoping to be able to decide if I should vote for her this round or not, so I guess I'll just keep my current vote and keep looking.
I really have no suspicions other than that possibility. It appears that Froggy isn't going to come back tonight and she is tied with Brin with votes, so I'll leave things as they are.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
The_Spider wrote:
You're not wrong with your implication, but surely "the wolves were probably seer hunting" is a pretty justified (and common) conclusion at this stage of the game to then fit an argument to. I don't think what she said is damning enough for a vote but I just find the critique of the process a little odd. Maybe I'm just getting bogged down in semantics.
I don't see why the Hooves post would convince anyone I (or my partners) were seer hunting her. It feels like a premise not really followed through very far (or a conclusion in search of an argument). Instead of going through a tedious argumentation, I will test the maxim 'Show Don't Tell'
Ask yourself, if Hooves had made that post about YOU (including her Edit) would you feel like you were a divined wolf?
Ask yourself, if Hooves had made that post about YOU (including her Edit) would you feel like you were a divined wolf?
You're not wrong with your implication, but surely "the wolves were probably seer hunting" is a pretty justified (and common) conclusion at this stage of the game to then fit an argument to. I don't think what she said is damning enough for a vote but I just find the critique of the process a little odd. Maybe I'm just getting bogged down in semantics.
You shot yourself a wolf frog
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