The Werewolf Game
Game #3440: Werewolf Game
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This game finished in 8 rounds.
Rfm
Thanks spiffy
One wolf down
Everyone else is in play
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 11:56:02---
Thanks spiffy
One wolf down
Everyone else is in play
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 11:56:02---
The obvious implication of the jem eating is that brin is a wolf. The wolves really need to be seer hunting at this stage so a frame eating would be unwise, plus the reason to eat jem was stronger than going for me or spid for our froggy votes, so feels like an actual seer hunt rather than an eating just to cause confusion. Plus if brin was human there would have been at least one more wolf that could have saved froggy, probably without raising too much suspicion given the pretty weak evidence on froggy.
Not sure why the Obvious implication is me...Jem voted for me one time in four rounds. Alien has voted for me 2 or 3 times. If I were a wolf and seer hunting, why wouldn't I get him out first? One more human to save froggy unless a wolf was bussing their partner. I could have easily changed my vote to 'save' myself and voted froggy or I could have put a second vote on someone else to give the two of us a fighting chance if I were the other wolf.
I'm beginning to wonder if this wasn't the 'outside' reason you were keeping me around. So that you could point the finger at me later - I've restated this more than once now - I wouldn't voted to eat rove in the first round - he's usually entertaining for a while
I have to put my vote on Smithy this round [retaliation? maybe but he's wrong so maybe I'm right], but I'm still considering bradon as a wolf. [sorry bradon if you're human it's just the feels I'm getting]
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
I'm beginning to wonder if this wasn't the 'outside' reason you were keeping me around. So that you could point the finger at me later - I've restated this more than once now - I wouldn't voted to eat rove in the first round - he's usually entertaining for a while
I have to put my vote on Smithy this round [retaliation? maybe but he's wrong so maybe I'm right], but I'm still considering bradon as a wolf. [sorry bradon if you're human it's just the feels I'm getting]
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
Jem suddenly turned his attention to you last round (and voted on a "hunch") and was immediately eaten, even if you are human it should be clear why this implicates you. Apologies if I'm missing anything but it seems like alien only voted for you last round too so wouldn't have particularly been a better candidate.
I don't really see the argument about not voting to save yourself, I would expect that of human or wolf, not just a wolf. Its interesting that neither you nor froggy voted to save yourselves, I see no reason a human wouldn't do it so it seems more like a wolf's inaction through fear of looking suspicious.
Seems a bit farfetched to try to turn it round on me given that I voted for froggy three rounds in a row, I'm open to bussing but that would be ludicrously keen.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 03:29:35---
I don't really see the argument about not voting to save yourself, I would expect that of human or wolf, not just a wolf. Its interesting that neither you nor froggy voted to save yourselves, I see no reason a human wouldn't do it so it seems more like a wolf's inaction through fear of looking suspicious.
Seems a bit farfetched to try to turn it round on me given that I voted for froggy three rounds in a row, I'm open to bussing but that would be ludicrously keen.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 03:29:35---
I'll read later, I think celt is a wolf though
I'll consider Brandon though, under brins consistent recommendation, its also a bit interesting she hasn't at any point reacted to by consistent support for her.
Ok....in the office.....
Last round is perplexing and a bit irritating. Spent most of the round waiting and waiting, and left with a 2-2-x tie, thinking ok the night owls will make the end interesting....instead there were two fairly inconsequential posts the rest of the night, and neither party in the majority reacted to it. I'm not sure what can be gleaned from this, aside from maybe the wolves simply weren't around and thus didn't react for that reason alone. I'm not sure when/or the context of Celt's 'low energy' joke, but he's making Jeb Bush look like a decathlete right now, which is one of the main reasons I suspect him.
I noticed that Hooves and Jem were eaten right after Froggy voted for them (and NC, the round after froggy voted for her). This could be a wolf well versed enough to know Froggy likely cleared those people with her vote, but then if a player is that savvy, they must know seer hunting is a higher priority. I just don't feel Jem was a great seer hunt, a seer with one (or certainly two) wolf divs in Round 4 (Eve of must lynch) is certainly not hoping to both squirrel through a wolf div, yet at the same time, not make it clear enough for the humans to act on it. There may be circumstances when it is possible, I just think it was a questionable roll of the dice by the wolves.
Probably have some other thoughts, will just need to settle in a bit.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 07:10:40---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I'll consider Brandon though, under brins consistent recommendation, its also a bit interesting she hasn't at any point reacted to by consistent support for her.
Ok....in the office.....
Last round is perplexing and a bit irritating. Spent most of the round waiting and waiting, and left with a 2-2-x tie, thinking ok the night owls will make the end interesting....instead there were two fairly inconsequential posts the rest of the night, and neither party in the majority reacted to it. I'm not sure what can be gleaned from this, aside from maybe the wolves simply weren't around and thus didn't react for that reason alone. I'm not sure when/or the context of Celt's 'low energy' joke, but he's making Jeb Bush look like a decathlete right now, which is one of the main reasons I suspect him.
I noticed that Hooves and Jem were eaten right after Froggy voted for them (and NC, the round after froggy voted for her). This could be a wolf well versed enough to know Froggy likely cleared those people with her vote, but then if a player is that savvy, they must know seer hunting is a higher priority. I just don't feel Jem was a great seer hunt, a seer with one (or certainly two) wolf divs in Round 4 (Eve of must lynch) is certainly not hoping to both squirrel through a wolf div, yet at the same time, not make it clear enough for the humans to act on it. There may be circumstances when it is possible, I just think it was a questionable roll of the dice by the wolves.
Probably have some other thoughts, will just need to settle in a bit.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 07:10:40---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Well, I'm happy to have made it this far. I am the seer, Spid and Smithy are human. (Jem was my other div and I was divining Whov the night she was eaten)
I still feel like Brin is a good choice for this round, could go Celt though. SPV on Brin for now and bbl.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 07:02:31---
My wiki trail is now public! :D
I still feel like Brin is a good choice for this round, could go Celt though. SPV on Brin for now and bbl.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 07:02:31---
My wiki trail is now public! :D
Ok cool, let's see what we got.....
Two wolves are between
Brin
Bradon
Celt
Snow
and we have one allowed miss.
I don't think Bradon/Brin makes sense as partners (Round 3) therefore I think the shot should come from Celt/Snow. For the record, I think Snow would have been the more sensible seer hunt (I would have been worried about quieter players sneaking through) so it could be she is a wolf and thus couldn't be eaten. The lack of defensive activity from the wolves last round also implicates Snow to some extent. Open to all idea though.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Two wolves are between
Brin
Bradon
Celt
Snow
and we have one allowed miss.
I don't think Bradon/Brin makes sense as partners (Round 3) therefore I think the shot should come from Celt/Snow. For the record, I think Snow would have been the more sensible seer hunt (I would have been worried about quieter players sneaking through) so it could be she is a wolf and thus couldn't be eaten. The lack of defensive activity from the wolves last round also implicates Snow to some extent. Open to all idea though.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
A Brin/Snow pairing might make sense then, because Snow is not a busser and if the tie was wolf-wolf she would have stayed out of it (though I don't know if she was on at the end of the round). A Brin/snow/frog combo would probably explain the eatings too.
My wiki trail is now public! :D
My wiki trail is now public! :D
Brin definitely at the top of the pile there with the Jem eating.
Good work Alien, we've got basically a pure 50/50 here.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
Good work Alien, we've got basically a pure 50/50 here.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
Spid do you not agree the Jem eating suggests brin (irrespective of how wise a seer hunt it was)?
I think my current priority order would be
brin
snow/celt
bobbi
Celt was giving me vague ~vibes~ in the previous rounds that I couldn't really put my finger on but spid's comments on snowy make sense. I still think bobbi is lowest choice and this would be especially so if brin flips wolf.
AlienChipBrain wrote:
I like how ingrained in us SPVing is that you still did at after your reval.
I think my current priority order would be
brin
snow/celt
bobbi
Celt was giving me vague ~vibes~ in the previous rounds that I couldn't really put my finger on but spid's comments on snowy make sense. I still think bobbi is lowest choice and this would be especially so if brin flips wolf.
AlienChipBrain wrote:
SPV on Brin for now and bbl.
I like how ingrained in us SPVing is that you still did at after your reval.
celtichero wrote:
And you're due a win from a 50:50 eyyoooo
Good work Alien, we've got basically a pure 50/50 here.
And you're due a win from a 50:50 eyyoooo
The_Smithy wrote:
Honestly, I'm not sure if it is. I mean, probabilistically it probably was, but like I said. If I'm hunting for the seer in Round 4 the opportunity cost is basically get it right or bust. I'm looking for someone who seems to know a wolf. I'm just not sure if that lines up with Jem/Brin. I'll go through the game soon, maybe I'll have a more complete outlook on things.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Spid do you not agree the Jem eating suggests brin (irrespective of how wise a seer hunt it was)?
I think my current priority order would be
brin
snow/celt
bobbi
Celt was giving me vague ~vibes~ in the previous rounds that I couldn't really put my finger on but spid's comments on snowy make sense. I still think bobbi is lowest choice and this would be especially so if brin flips wolf.
AlienChipBrain wrote:
I like how ingrained in us SPVing is that you still did at after your reval.
I think my current priority order would be
brin
snow/celt
bobbi
Celt was giving me vague ~vibes~ in the previous rounds that I couldn't really put my finger on but spid's comments on snowy make sense. I still think bobbi is lowest choice and this would be especially so if brin flips wolf.
AlienChipBrain wrote:
SPV on Brin for now and bbl.
I like how ingrained in us SPVing is that you still did at after your reval.
Honestly, I'm not sure if it is. I mean, probabilistically it probably was, but like I said. If I'm hunting for the seer in Round 4 the opportunity cost is basically get it right or bust. I'm looking for someone who seems to know a wolf. I'm just not sure if that lines up with Jem/Brin. I'll go through the game soon, maybe I'll have a more complete outlook on things.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Celt is Celt, so bussing is possible, but Round 3 is critical this game.
Do we view Brin/Bradon as likely parnters?
Celt/Bradon?
If neither, then ir's Bradon/Snow or Bradon is cleared, so...with leave to evaluate my premise, does shooting snow make the most sense?
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Do we view Brin/Bradon as likely parnters?
Celt/Bradon?
If neither, then ir's Bradon/Snow or Bradon is cleared, so...with leave to evaluate my premise, does shooting snow make the most sense?
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Agree jem wasn't a strong candidate for seer but like last round I guess I'm coming from the other side to you, jem was presumably a seer candidate to someone so who else would it suggest?
Having said that I think I agree your proposal. I'm a little too focused on brin now so maybe need to take a step back but I'll probably be happy with a snow vote this round.
Having said that I think I agree your proposal. I'm a little too focused on brin now so maybe need to take a step back but I'll probably be happy with a snow vote this round.
AlienChipBrain wrote:
I don't agree Snow would have stayed out of a tie between 2 wolves if she is a wolf, because she would definitely Buss a fellow wolf if necessary. I've seen her do it several times and she has stated as much in the past. However, I'm just not getting wolfy vibes from her this game.
Before you declared you were the Seer, I was convinced Spider and Brin were the two wolves. However my intent was to vote Brin this round and see what transpired. Since I was so wrong about Spider, I'm not sure how I feel now., so I need to reread. I'll be back.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 09:25:57---
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
A Brin/Snow pairing might make sense then, because Snow is not a busser and if the tie was wolf-wolf she would have stayed out of it (though I don't know if she was on at the end of the round). A Brin/snow/frog combo would probably explain the eatings too.
I don't agree Snow would have stayed out of a tie between 2 wolves if she is a wolf, because she would definitely Buss a fellow wolf if necessary. I've seen her do it several times and she has stated as much in the past. However, I'm just not getting wolfy vibes from her this game.
Before you declared you were the Seer, I was convinced Spider and Brin were the two wolves. However my intent was to vote Brin this round and see what transpired. Since I was so wrong about Spider, I'm not sure how I feel now., so I need to reread. I'll be back.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 09:25:57---
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
We have time (we shouldn't overindulge in it for the sake of it), but no sense in rushing any conclusions. Celt feels like a wolf to me who just doesn't feel like fighting too hard. I'm not sure about Brin, the Jem eating as a seer hunt is certainly reasonable, Snow is basically a true wild card right now (and if she is unable to participate much going forward, and we have tactical grounds for shooting her) it may make the most sense. I'm just trying to see if I'm overlooking something.
I just don't see Bradon putting Brin in a majority in Round 3, when Tem was available, and was perfectly justifable as an act of self defense (double 'self' defense actually if it really were Brin/Bradon). Celt calling Bradon's post 'terrible' (without additional commentary) strikes me as quite unlikely if they are partners. This kind of statement from Celt isn't atypical and strikes me as very likely spontaneous and genuine. Whether that is a wolf or human response remains to be seen, but I don't think it reads as a wolf...I don't know....scolding his parnter so impromptu like that.
Bradon, upon the reveal that Froggy was a wolf, it seems a little odd you were 'convinced' I was a wolf? Could you elaborate? It just feels a little curious given you basically haven't mentioned me up until now.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 09:58:16---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I just don't see Bradon putting Brin in a majority in Round 3, when Tem was available, and was perfectly justifable as an act of self defense (double 'self' defense actually if it really were Brin/Bradon). Celt calling Bradon's post 'terrible' (without additional commentary) strikes me as quite unlikely if they are partners. This kind of statement from Celt isn't atypical and strikes me as very likely spontaneous and genuine. Whether that is a wolf or human response remains to be seen, but I don't think it reads as a wolf...I don't know....scolding his parnter so impromptu like that.
Bradon, upon the reveal that Froggy was a wolf, it seems a little odd you were 'convinced' I was a wolf? Could you elaborate? It just feels a little curious given you basically haven't mentioned me up until now.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 09:58:16---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Glad we got a Wolf and the Seer is still here with good info.
Things have quieted down a bit here, so I'll try to put some thoughts down.
AlienChipBrain - Seer! Yay, nothing to add.
bradon182001 - Could go either way. Something she said last round caught my eye, but I was thinking it meant she may have been the Seer. I think where she stated "I'll stop posting here" or something to that effect. I wasn't sure how to take that, so I was thinking she was the seer and she was voting for a known wolf. So - now that I know she's not the seer, I have to say I could go either way with her.
bRIN- On the fence.
celtichero - On the fence, but I see where others, like Spider are coming from with their view on Celtic.
The_Smithy - Seer divined as human.
The_Spider - Seer divined as human.
I really haven't put a lot of thought in this game, but I'm trying to help.
For now, I'll place a vote for Bobby - subject to change.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Things have quieted down a bit here, so I'll try to put some thoughts down.
AlienChipBrain - Seer! Yay, nothing to add.
bradon182001 - Could go either way. Something she said last round caught my eye, but I was thinking it meant she may have been the Seer. I think where she stated "I'll stop posting here" or something to that effect. I wasn't sure how to take that, so I was thinking she was the seer and she was voting for a known wolf. So - now that I know she's not the seer, I have to say I could go either way with her.
bRIN- On the fence.
celtichero - On the fence, but I see where others, like Spider are coming from with their view on Celtic.
The_Smithy - Seer divined as human.
The_Spider - Seer divined as human.
I really haven't put a lot of thought in this game, but I'm trying to help.
For now, I'll place a vote for Bobby - subject to change.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Spider and smithy human⁰...so I will either go back to Bradon or trust ???? Celt could be. So could snow. I'll say once again, it is not me.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
I feel Bradon/Brin is a pretty secure pair exclusion (someone else share opinion)
I think Bradon/Celt is not very likely, but there is a crack of an opening.
In that light, Snow voting Bradon is illogical (If Snow knows she is human, that would 'clear' Bradon if she agrees with my exlusions), and the wolves must be Celt/Brin.
Contrary, if Brin is human (or how Brin should play if she is human).
She can rule out Bradon/Celt, therefore, the wolves are Snow + Celt/Bradon.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
I think Bradon/Celt is not very likely, but there is a crack of an opening.
In that light, Snow voting Bradon is illogical (If Snow knows she is human, that would 'clear' Bradon if she agrees with my exlusions), and the wolves must be Celt/Brin.
Contrary, if Brin is human (or how Brin should play if she is human).
She can rule out Bradon/Celt, therefore, the wolves are Snow + Celt/Bradon.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
The_Spider wrote:
Bradon, upon the reveal that Froggy was a wolf, it seems a little odd you were 'convinced' I was a wolf? Could you elaborate? It just feels a little curious given you basically haven't mentioned me up until now.
I haven't mentioned you until now is because for the first few rounds you weren't your usual suspicious self of me. You seemed, ah, more mellow, less critical. I guess "convinced" was the wrong word to use, more like questioning your motives. How, exactly, would you have had me question you about my feelings with nothing concrete to point out?
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
Bradon, upon the reveal that Froggy was a wolf, it seems a little odd you were 'convinced' I was a wolf? Could you elaborate? It just feels a little curious given you basically haven't mentioned me up until now.
I haven't mentioned you until now is because for the first few rounds you weren't your usual suspicious self of me. You seemed, ah, more mellow, less critical. I guess "convinced" was the wrong word to use, more like questioning your motives. How, exactly, would you have had me question you about my feelings with nothing concrete to point out?
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
Spider, it only takes 4 votes to shoot someone and I didn't want to be the 3rd vote. We still have a decent amount of time to think things out and I don't think we should put the wolves in a position where they can step in and place the 4th vote on someone - I could go either bRIN or Celtic, but for now, my vote stays on Bobby.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Spider if you think Bradon/myself is effectively eliminated, the logical move is to shoot Brin/Snowy in either order the next two rounds then correct.
I know I'm not a wolf, and with only three other suspects left, we're guaranteed at least one hit there and at worst force a round 7.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
I know I'm not a wolf, and with only three other suspects left, we're guaranteed at least one hit there and at worst force a round 7.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
We get it, none of you are wolves
bradon wrote
How, exactly, would you have had me question you about my feelings with nothing concrete to point out?
I'm not totally sure I know what you mean by this, but it seems like you are ascribing to me the power to read your mind. I merely asked why you suddenly (or at least from my perspective) suspected me the round after I had a vote placed on a shot wolf.
I'm not sure if I see where Snow is coming from, it feels like a lot of 'fast talking' to explain away something that really isn't that incriminating (you could have just abstained from voting afterall).
If I had to assign an 'I swear it's not me hierarchy' just for a roadmap Celt, you are a distance 4th among the remaining suspects
The rubric for me is (where R is brin)
BCSR - shoot Bradon:
human: Must get 2/3 in 2 rounds of CSR to win
wolf: shoot Snow (likely autowin)
BCSR - shoot Celt
human: Via BR exlcusion, shoot S, then choose between BR for final wolf
wolf: via B exlcusion, shoot S and R in order (likely autowin)
BCSR - shoot Snow
human: Bradon cleared (via multiple exlcusions), wolves are CR (likely autowin)
wolf: Get last of BCR in 2 chances
BCSR - shoot Brin
human: shoot Snow via BC exclusion, choose between BC for final wolf
wolf: via B exclusion, shoot C and S (likely autowin)
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 12:48:08---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
bradon wrote
How, exactly, would you have had me question you about my feelings with nothing concrete to point out?
I'm not totally sure I know what you mean by this, but it seems like you are ascribing to me the power to read your mind. I merely asked why you suddenly (or at least from my perspective) suspected me the round after I had a vote placed on a shot wolf.
I'm not sure if I see where Snow is coming from, it feels like a lot of 'fast talking' to explain away something that really isn't that incriminating (you could have just abstained from voting afterall).
If I had to assign an 'I swear it's not me hierarchy' just for a roadmap Celt, you are a distance 4th among the remaining suspects
The rubric for me is (where R is brin)
BCSR - shoot Bradon:
human: Must get 2/3 in 2 rounds of CSR to win
wolf: shoot Snow (likely autowin)
BCSR - shoot Celt
human: Via BR exlcusion, shoot S, then choose between BR for final wolf
wolf: via B exlcusion, shoot S and R in order (likely autowin)
BCSR - shoot Snow
human: Bradon cleared (via multiple exlcusions), wolves are CR (likely autowin)
wolf: Get last of BCR in 2 chances
BCSR - shoot Brin
human: shoot Snow via BC exclusion, choose between BC for final wolf
wolf: via B exclusion, shoot C and S (likely autowin)
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 12:48:08---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Likely Autowin (where/if we can safely exclude Bradon/Celt and Bradon/Brin)
Shoot Snow and Snow is human
Shoot Celt and Celt is a wolf
Shoot Bradon and Bradon is a wolf
Shoot Brin and Brin is a wolf
2/3 win rate : 1 - ((2/3)*(1/2))
Shoot Snow and Snow is a wolf
50/50 win rate
Shoot Celt and Celt is human
Shoot Brin and Brin is human
1/3 win rate : (2/3)*(1/2)
Shoot Bradon and Bradon is human
---------------------------
In lieu of this, switching to Snow, but urge people to make up their own minds on Bradon/Celt and Bradon/Brin
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 12:59:30---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Shoot Snow and Snow is human
Shoot Celt and Celt is a wolf
Shoot Bradon and Bradon is a wolf
Shoot Brin and Brin is a wolf
2/3 win rate : 1 - ((2/3)*(1/2))
Shoot Snow and Snow is a wolf
50/50 win rate
Shoot Celt and Celt is human
Shoot Brin and Brin is human
1/3 win rate : (2/3)*(1/2)
Shoot Bradon and Bradon is human
---------------------------
In lieu of this, switching to Snow, but urge people to make up their own minds on Bradon/Celt and Bradon/Brin
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 12:59:30---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Tried to post a gif calling spid a nerd but it didn't work, guess I'll have to do it myself
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 13:21:31---
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 13:21:31---
I'm still a little bit stuck on brin but I think I agree with your analysis. Obviously the pair exclusions are not watertight but at this stage we need to play the odds
Good chance froggy voted to eat Rove first round this game - she was in the game where I was a wolf and voted to eat Rove in Round 1. Maybe she was trying to make me look Wolfish because I KNOW she'd never set up a fellow wolf like that.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
I agree, Froggy likely voted to eat Rove, but I'm not sure who exactly you mean by 'setting up a fellow wolf' (even taking KNOW as tongue in cheek, I still am not sure what you mean).
Bradon is safe this round regardless, but on rereading, some fissures are starting to appear (and at the time of her vote, Brin was the better voting option than Tem....although she had opportunity to change this) ..so I may be down to like 90% sure Bradon/Brin can be ruled out. The thing I'm most curious of is the note I mentioned. Last round, toward the end, she alluded to having no suspicion on anyone other than 'froggy not coming back on' (not a directly stated Froggy suspicion). It's just odd that I voted Froggy, Brin was tied with Froggy, and yet after the reveal that Frog was a wolf, her immediate instinct is Brin/Spider. People have their own thought processes, so it's not alarming per se, but it is curious.
And Celt, if you want to discuss most logical options. If you believe Brin/Bradon are not a pair (pretty reasonable but you have freedom to see it differently) than Snow would be the obvious vote, wouldn't she? How do you view Bradon/Brin?
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 14:19:44---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Bradon is safe this round regardless, but on rereading, some fissures are starting to appear (and at the time of her vote, Brin was the better voting option than Tem....although she had opportunity to change this) ..so I may be down to like 90% sure Bradon/Brin can be ruled out. The thing I'm most curious of is the note I mentioned. Last round, toward the end, she alluded to having no suspicion on anyone other than 'froggy not coming back on' (not a directly stated Froggy suspicion). It's just odd that I voted Froggy, Brin was tied with Froggy, and yet after the reveal that Frog was a wolf, her immediate instinct is Brin/Spider. People have their own thought processes, so it's not alarming per se, but it is curious.
And Celt, if you want to discuss most logical options. If you believe Brin/Bradon are not a pair (pretty reasonable but you have freedom to see it differently) than Snow would be the obvious vote, wouldn't she? How do you view Bradon/Brin?
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 14:19:44---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Re the Bradon/Brin thing, as far as I know Bradon only busses when she feels there is little chance of winning if she doesn't bus, but which was totally not the situation in R3, so I am comfortable ignoring that pair. I'm not quite as ready to exclude the Bradon/Celt pair though.
Snow's post above doesn't really make sense to me. Her point is "maybe froggy was setting me up" based on one single game where they were partners - how many people would remember that exact game? Would froggy remember enough of her eating choices that game to not try to eat Rove based on who her partners were this game?
I'm not arguing the "froggy probably ate Rove" bit or even the "froggy wouldn't set up a fellow wolf", but the logic of "based on one game in the past where froggy did something I can't be a wolf this time" seems rather weak.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 14:24:01---
My wiki trail is now public! :D
Snow's post above doesn't really make sense to me. Her point is "maybe froggy was setting me up" based on one single game where they were partners - how many people would remember that exact game? Would froggy remember enough of her eating choices that game to not try to eat Rove based on who her partners were this game?
I'm not arguing the "froggy probably ate Rove" bit or even the "froggy wouldn't set up a fellow wolf", but the logic of "based on one game in the past where froggy did something I can't be a wolf this time" seems rather weak.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 14:24:01---
My wiki trail is now public! :D
That game was brought up a lot at the beginning of this game. Maybe froggy forgot about it, maybe she was hoping the eating of Rove would point to me, all I know, is that if she and I were wolf partners, I KNOW that she would not purposely try to make me look wolfish. That's all I'm saying. My guess is that she forgot about that game but if she did remember it, she wouldn't put a fellow wolf in the spotlight.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
snowmonster wrote:
It was only brought up after Rove was eaten. Also, I looked through R1 and there were no comments about that game (which finished over a month ago), so I don't think this a reasonable explanation for why you can't be wolfy.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 14:36:41---
My wiki trail is now public! :D
That game was brought up a lot at the beginning of this game.
It was only brought up after Rove was eaten. Also, I looked through R1 and there were no comments about that game (which finished over a month ago), so I don't think this a reasonable explanation for why you can't be wolfy.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 14:36:41---
My wiki trail is now public! :D
That's a creative defense Snow, although I'm not sure it's persuasive, given I'm not sure, as Alien said, she had on her mind whether her eating choice might appear to implicate a wolf partner based on a month old game.
Worse, you being a human actually is even better than you being a wolf, IF, I am right about my Bradon pairing propositions. Your best defensive strategy is to undermine those.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Worse, you being a human actually is even better than you being a wolf, IF, I am right about my Bradon pairing propositions. Your best defensive strategy is to undermine those.
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Of course it was only brought up after Rove got eaten.
Oh well, I am just trying to point something obvious to me out. If you don't get it, that's fine.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Oh well, I am just trying to point something obvious to me out. If you don't get it, that's fine.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
With all that's been going on in RL that game feels like it was at the most 2 weeks ago.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
I didn't vote for Tem because I felt she was human, why? Because I just got through playing a WTB game with her and I was boss and she was Rat. Even as Rat she pretty much " followed the leader" and it just seemed to me she was playing the same way. Maybe I shouldn't have assumed anything, but I think you know by now that I'm a gut player.
I don't analyze everyone's game play. I just happened to remember something Brin said in this game that she had said in a previous game and since it sounded pretty much the same wording, I did try and find the previous game. Needless to say, I couldn't find it after 1/2 hour of searching, so I gave up. I'm too impatient.
I know I've been pretty much set on Brin but at this point I'm not quite so sure. Snow's comment about Froggy maybe trying to make her look Wolfish because she knows she'd never set up a fellow wolf like that. I agree with the last part of her sentence, but I can't see Froggy trying to make Snowy wolfish under any circumstances. Someone else, maybe, but not Snowy. Again, that's my gut speaking. I could be and probably am wrong.
I know I have to make a decision. I'll be back.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
I don't analyze everyone's game play. I just happened to remember something Brin said in this game that she had said in a previous game and since it sounded pretty much the same wording, I did try and find the previous game. Needless to say, I couldn't find it after 1/2 hour of searching, so I gave up. I'm too impatient.
I know I've been pretty much set on Brin but at this point I'm not quite so sure. Snow's comment about Froggy maybe trying to make her look Wolfish because she knows she'd never set up a fellow wolf like that. I agree with the last part of her sentence, but I can't see Froggy trying to make Snowy wolfish under any circumstances. Someone else, maybe, but not Snowy. Again, that's my gut speaking. I could be and probably am wrong.
I know I have to make a decision. I'll be back.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
I think the point Alien and I are emphasizing is that I doubt it even crossed Froggy's mind that 'me eating Rove will probably implicate Snow'. Even so, if this is the road Snow is arguing down, could we not just as easily argue, well, then I guess the other wolf voted to eat Rove?
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Maybe it's just work has warped my mind but from all the projections all I'm seeing is that if we shoot a wolf this round it's basically an autowin and if we shoot a human we have a 2/3 chance. Not really the cutting edge of analysis.
I'm starting to become pretty confident that the pair is Snow and Brin at this point. Snow is reaching HARD to say the eatings were an attempt to frame her; and the eating of Jem I think has to incriminate Brin.
The only people who could've gotten Jem eaten last round are Bradon, Brin, and myself, and I can't think of any reason why Bradon would make that move. From my perspective it's a lot easier to believe I was wrong about (and annoyed at) Bradon in earlier, than that she ate Jem.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
I'm starting to become pretty confident that the pair is Snow and Brin at this point. Snow is reaching HARD to say the eatings were an attempt to frame her; and the eating of Jem I think has to incriminate Brin.
The only people who could've gotten Jem eaten last round are Bradon, Brin, and myself, and I can't think of any reason why Bradon would make that move. From my perspective it's a lot easier to believe I was wrong about (and annoyed at) Bradon in earlier, than that she ate Jem.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
Well no, you didn't really read it then
Assuming a 50% chance of any suspect flipping wolf (2/4). In practice it's a little different but just to illustrate the best 'blind luck' winning strategy. This again, assumes the premise of no Bradon/Brin or Bradon/Celt. Disagreeing with that, as a justification for discarding the analysis is fine, but if you agree with it:
Shoot Snow
0.5*(1) + 0.5*(0.67) = 0.835 win rate
Shoot Brin/Celt
0.5*(1) + 0.5*(0.5) = 0.75 win rate
Shoot Bradon
0.5*(1) + 0.5*(0.33) = 0.665 win rate
Derisively tossing away 8.5% (minimum) winning odds, is hardly 'cutting edge' analysis in it's own right.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 17:01:26---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Assuming a 50% chance of any suspect flipping wolf (2/4). In practice it's a little different but just to illustrate the best 'blind luck' winning strategy. This again, assumes the premise of no Bradon/Brin or Bradon/Celt. Disagreeing with that, as a justification for discarding the analysis is fine, but if you agree with it:
Shoot Snow
0.5*(1) + 0.5*(0.67) = 0.835 win rate
Shoot Brin/Celt
0.5*(1) + 0.5*(0.5) = 0.75 win rate
Shoot Bradon
0.5*(1) + 0.5*(0.33) = 0.665 win rate
Derisively tossing away 8.5% (minimum) winning odds, is hardly 'cutting edge' analysis in it's own right.
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 17:01:26---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
It takes 4 votes to select someone to be shot with the silver bullet.
AlienChipBrain voted for bRIN
bRIN voted for celtichero
celtichero voted for bRIN
snowmonster voted for bradon182001
The_Spider voted for snowmonster
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
AlienChipBrain voted for bRIN
bRIN voted for celtichero
celtichero voted for bRIN
snowmonster voted for bradon182001
The_Spider voted for snowmonster
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
Alright, I'm going to vote Snow and hope for the best.
Sorry Snow if you are human, but I've started to overthink this and find reasons to suspect everyone and as I said before, I only have one vote.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
Sorry Snow if you are human, but I've started to overthink this and find reasons to suspect everyone and as I said before, I only have one vote.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
It takes 4 votes to select someone to be shot with the silver bullet.
AlienChipBrain voted for bRIN
bradon182001 voted for snowmonster
bRIN voted for celtichero
celtichero voted for bRIN
snowmonster voted for bradon182001
The_Spider voted for snowmonster
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
AlienChipBrain voted for bRIN
bradon182001 voted for snowmonster
bRIN voted for celtichero
celtichero voted for bRIN
snowmonster voted for bradon182001
The_Spider voted for snowmonster
Nobody has been shot with the silver bullet yet.
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty
As I said, I will trust Spider's judgement on this. I'll put my vote on Snow.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
Your love gave me memories too beautiful to forget.
I actully did misread it.
I was looking at things two at a time instead of one.
There is literally zero universe where both Snow and Brin are both human so I'm happy with a vote either way.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
I was looking at things two at a time instead of one.
There is literally zero universe where both Snow and Brin are both human so I'm happy with a vote either way.
"I need to be myself. I can't be no one else." - Noel Gallagher
I can only shake my head.
Changing my vote to help save my human skin.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Changing my vote to help save my human skin.
Take all sorrow out of life and you take away all richness, and depth, and tenderness. The capacity of sorrow belongs to our grandeur. It is the furnace that melts hearts together in love.
Then we should be in autowin
Bradon, do you mind claiming you are human so that all 4 candidates can have said it?
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 19:27:19---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
Bradon, do you mind claiming you are human so that all 4 candidates can have said it?
---This message was edited on 2021-09-30 19:27:19---
Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can - Sun Tzu
If I adjust the numbers for my gut feel of role I'm about an equal probability of a win for going brin or snow... So if I feel like it makes little difference I'd rather trust the numbers and go snow. I'm very aware of the possibility I've got tunnel vision on brin so going snow feels the more objective choice.
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