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Shooting Star

Probability puzzles require you to weigh all the possibilities and pick the most likely outcome.

 

Puzzle ID:#21554
Fun:*** (2.46)
Difficulty:*** (2.53)
Category:Probability
Submitted By:tsimkinAus*****!

 

 

 



Henry and Gretchen plan on sitting outside to look for shooting stars. They know from experience that if they watch for an hour, they will have a 90% chance of seeing a shooting star. It is a chilly night, though, so Gretchen says, "Let's only stay out for 10 minutes."

Henry says, "I was really hoping to see a shooting star tonight. If we are only out for 10 minutes, we will only have a 15% chance."

Gretchen replies, "Not true. We have a better chance than that."

Is Gretchen right? If so, what is the probability that they see a shooting star?


Hint

What is the probability that they don't see a shooting star over the course of an hour? Ten minutes?
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